首页|恶性肿瘤患者表柔比星诱导心脏毒性风险特征及早期预测模型分析

恶性肿瘤患者表柔比星诱导心脏毒性风险特征及早期预测模型分析

Risk characteristics and early prediction model of epirubicin-induced cardiotoxicity in patients with malignant tumors

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目的 分析恶性肿瘤患者表柔比星诱导心脏毒性风险特征,并建立早期预测模型.方法 选择2023年5月-2024年5月新疆医科大学附属肿瘤医院就诊的恶性肿瘤患者320例,均予患者表柔比星化疗.根据是否发生心脏损伤分为心脏损伤组和无心脏损伤组.比较2组的一般资料、心电图等项目;多因素Logistic回归分析相关指标与恶性肿瘤患者表柔比星诱导心脏毒性风险的关系,R软件建立并验证各因素预测恶性肿瘤患者表柔比星诱导心脏毒性风险的列线图预测模型.结果 320例患者中,失联18例;出现心脏损伤62例(20.53%)列为心脏损伤组;剩余240例患者为无心脏损伤组.心脏损伤组年龄、伴高血压患者所占比率、表柔比星累积量、化疗次数和合并放疗患者所占比率均高于无心脏损伤组(t/x2/P=6.001/<0.001、6.580/0.010、7.631/<0.001、7.117/<0.001、6.380/0.012);多因素Logistic回归分析示,年龄大、伴高血压、化疗次数多、表柔比星累积量高、联合放疗是恶性肿瘤患者表柔比星诱导心脏毒性风险的独立危险因素[OR(95%CI)=1.088(1.037~1.142)、2.473(1.084~5.642)、1.676(1.373~2.046)、1.012(1.007~1.016)、2.154(1.021~4.545)];将影响恶性肿瘤患者表柔比星诱导心脏毒性风险的各因素纳入列线图,预测恶性肿瘤患者表柔比星诱导心脏毒性风险相关因素的C-index为0.912.结论 用表柔比星累积量、化疗次数等因素构建的列线图对预测恶性肿瘤患者表柔比星诱导的心脏毒性风险有一定的作用,有助于早期调整治疗方案,预防心脏毒性的发生.
Objective The risk characteristics of epirubicin-induced cardiotoxicity in patients with malignant tumors were analyzed and an early prediction model was established.Methods From may 2023 to may 2024,320 patients with ma-lignant tumors in the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University were selected for analysis.All patients were treated with epirubicin chemotherapy.They were divided into cardiac injury group and control group according to whether heart injury occurred.General data,electrocardiogram and other items were compared between the two groups.Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between relevant indicators and the risk of epirubicin-induced car-diotoxicity in patients with malignant tumors,and R software was used to establish and verify the nomogram prediction model of each factor to predict the risk of epirubicin-induced cardiotoxicity in patients with malignant tumors.Results Of the 320 patients,18 lost contact;Sixty-two cases(20.53%)were classified as heart injury group,among which T wave or ST segment changes were the highest,followed by EF changes.The remaining 240 patients were the control group.The age,the proportion of patients with hypertension,the accumulation of epirubicin,The Times of chemotherapy and the proportion of patients with radiotherapy in the heart injury group were higher than those in the control group(t/x2/P=6.001/<0.001,6.580/0.010,7.631/<0.001,7.117/<0.001,6.380/0.012).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that higher age,hy-pertension,the accumulation of epirubicin,the number of chemotherapy,and combined radiotherapy were independent risk factors for the risk of epirubicin induced cardiotoxicity in patients with malignant tumors[OR(95%CI)=1.088(1.037-1.142)、2.473(1.084-5.642)、1.676(1.373-2.046)、1.012(1.007-1.016)、2.154(1.021-4.545)].The factors influencing the risk of epirubicin-induced cardiotoxicity in patients with malignant tumors were included in the column diagram,and the C-index of the factors predicting the risk of epirubicin-induced cardiotoxicity in patients with malignant tumors was 0.912.Conclusion The column graph constructed by the accumulation of epirubicin and the number of chemotherapy plays a certain role in predicting the risk of epirubicin-induced cardiotoxicity in malignant tumor patients,which helps to adjust the treatment regimen early and prevent the occurrence of cardiotoxicity.

Malignant tumorEpirubicinCardio toxicityPrediction model

姜芸、王泳梅、李佳蔚、吴莉

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830000 乌鲁木齐,新疆医科大学附属肿瘤医院肿瘤心脏病科

830000 乌鲁木齐,新疆医科大学附属肿瘤医院重症医学科

恶性肿瘤 表柔比星 心脏毒性 预测模型

2024

疑难病杂志
中国医师协会

疑难病杂志

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.171
ISSN:1671-6450
年,卷(期):2024.23(12)