首页|我国战略性关键矿产资源产业链安全监测预警体系构建策略

我国战略性关键矿产资源产业链安全监测预警体系构建策略

扫码查看
党的二十届三中全会提出,要建立产业链供应链安全风险评估和应对机制.针对国家战略性关键矿产资源产业链安全的重要性,文章采用基于熵权法的Tobit模型,融合运用3种经典机器学习模型——随机森林、XGBoost、决策树,构建我国战略性关键矿产资源产业链安全监测预警体系.研究发现,我国战略性关键矿产资源产业链安全水平总体呈现波动上升的趋势,形有波动、势为向好,反映了我国在战略性关键矿产资源领域的产业实力和安全保障能力在不断提升,同时,经济因素和环境因素对我国战略性关键矿产资源产业链安全的影响力较大.最后,贯彻落实党的二十届三中全会提出的关于健全提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平制度的要求,提出建立风险应对机制、完善预警机制、构建海外利益保护和风险预警处置体系的政策建议.
Strategy on the Construction of Safety Monitoring and Early Warning System of Strategic Key Mineral Resources Industry Chain in China
The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(CPC)proposed to estab-lish a mechanism for assessing and responding to security risks in the industrial chain and supply chain.In terms of the impor-tance of the strategic mineral resources,the paper adopts the entropy weight method-based Tobit model,integrates and applies 3 classic machine learning models,that are Random Forest,XGBoost,and Decision-making Tree,to construct a safety moni-toring and early warning model of the strategic key mineral resources industry chain.According to the research,the industry chain security of strategic key mineral resources in China has generally shown a fluctuating upward trend,which reflecting China's continuous improvement of the strength and security guaranteeing in the strategic key mineral resources.Meanwhile,the eco-nomic and environmental factors have a greater influence on the security of the strategic key mineral resources industry chain in China.Finally,to implement the requirements proposed by the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee on im-proving the resilience and security level system of the industry chain and the supply chain,the paper puts forward policy sugges-tions of establishing a risk response mechanism,improving an early warning mechanism,and constructing a system of overseas interest protection and risk early warning and disposal.

Strategic Key Mineral ResourcesIndustry Chain SecurityRisk AssessmentMonitoring&Early Warning System

张海亮、付晶

展开 >

昆明理工大学,昆明 650500

战略性关键矿产资源 产业链安全 风险评估 监测预警体系

2024

云南大学学报(社会科学版)
云南大学

云南大学学报(社会科学版)

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.322
ISSN:1671-7511
年,卷(期):2024.23(6)