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GDP与环境空气质量的关系:以昆明市2013-2022年环境空气为例

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国内生产总值(Gross domestic product,GDP)可反映地区的经济实力和市场规模,环境空气质量指数AQI及污染物浓度(SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2。5、CO、O3)可反映环境空气质量,二者具有相关性。本研究以高原山地省会城市—昆明市为代表,研究近10年(2013-2022年)环境空气质量与区域GDP的环境库兹涅茨EKC曲线,并分析空气中代表性污染物浓度的变化趋势及相互关系,再对环境空气AQI指数变化做出ARIMA模型的预测。近10年来,昆明市环境空气AQI指数与GDP的发展呈现良性促进,随着GDP增长总体呈现下降向好趋势。环境空气中O3与PM10、PM2。5和CO具有中度相关性。未来两年环境空气AQI指数可能受到O3的影响而分别升高2。5%和3。7%。
The Relationship between Ambient Air Quality and GDP:a Case Study of Ambient Air in Kunming from 2013 to 2022
GDP stands for gross domestic product and indicates the region's economic strength and market size.Ambient air quality index(AQI)and pollutant concentration(SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2.5、CO、O3)represent the air quality.The former is related to the latter.In this study,Kunming City is one provincial capital of the plateau mountain area.The environmental Kuzets EKC curve of the environmental air quality index(AQI)and the local GDP over the last ten years(2013-2022)were investigated,as well as the change trend and mutual relationship of the concentration of representative air pollutants.The ARIMA model was then used to forecast the AQI index of the ambient air.In the last 10 years,the AQI index and GDP development in Kunming have all shown a favorable trend.There was a moderate correlation between O3、PM10、PM2.5 and CO.The AQI of ambient air may rise by 2.5%and 3.7%,respectively,owing to the impact of O3 in the next two years.

GDPambient airmodel predictiontrend of change

GDP 环境空气 地表水 模型预测 变化趋势

2024

环境科学导刊
云南环境科学研究院

环境科学导刊

影响因子:0.525
ISSN:1673-9655
年,卷(期):2024.43(1)
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