Prediction of Potential Suitable Area of Picea neoveitchii and the Influence of Future Climate Changes on its Distribution Based on the Optimized Model
Prediction of Potential Suitable Area of Picea neoveitchii and the Influence of Future Climate Changes on its Distribution Based on the Optimized Model
As a rare and endangered plant endemic to China,Picea neoveitchii has high ecological and economic values.The optimized MaxEnt model(based on the Kuenm package in R language)was used to predict the current potential suitable area of P.neoveitchii,and to analyze the impact of climate change on the distribution of P.neoveitchii in the future,with the aim of providing scientific basis for the protection,introduction and cultivation of P.neoveitchii germplasm resources in China.The results were as follows:(1)Optimized by Kuenm package,when FC=LQ and RM=0.5,the AUC value is 0.937,and the optimized MaxEnt model has very high prediction accura-cy;(2)Mean temperature of the coldest quarter(bio11),annual mean precipitation(bio12),elevation(elev),iso-thermality(bio3),and precipitation of the warmest quarter(bio18)were the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of P.neoveitchii,and the contribution rates are 23.2%,21.9%,17.6%,9.2%and 6.7%,respec-tively.(3)Currently,the highly suitable area of P.neoveitchii are mainly distributed in the Qinling-Daba mountain area.Under the four emission paths in the future,the distribution of potential suitable areas will be more fragmented than at present,and suitable areas will be highly compressed,with increased pressure on species survival and inter-specific competitiveness,and a tendency towards extinction.(4)It is recommended that the three-dimensional pro-tection mode of the combination of in-situ conservation and ex-situ conservation should be adopted for the natural population,with in-situ conservation and artificial cultivation should being carried out at the same time in the highly suitable area.The moderately suitable area can be appropriately relocated into the P.neoveitchii,so that it is condu-cive to the reproduction and spread of the P.neoveitchii populations.
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