摘要
为明确藿香蓟在云南省的分布格局、扩散趋势和入侵危害风险,以藿香蓟研究对象,通过在云南全省范围内踏查和样地调查,获得藿香蓟发生位点,基于最大熵生态位模型(MaxEnt),预测其在云南省的分布格局和扩散趋势.并根据国家林业局"林业危害性有害生物风险分析指标体系"分析云南藿香蓟入侵危害风险.结果显示:(1)藿香蓟广泛分布在云南省内 15 个州(市)72 个县(区),主要分布在德宏、临沧、西双版纳、普洱、红河等边境区域和怒江和金沙江干热河谷区;(2)MaxEnt预测结果显示,在气候变化条件下,藿香蓟有向滇中昆明、楚雄、玉溪、红河等高海拔区域扩散的趋势,最潮湿季节降水量、降水量季节性变化、年平均气温、年降水量共 4 个气候因子是影响藿香蓟未来适生区分布的主要限制因素;(3)风险分析结果表明,藿香蓟在云南属于高度危险的入侵植物.
Abstract
In order to clarify the distribution pattern,diffusion trend and invasion hazard risk of Ageratum cony-zoides in Yunnan province,the occurrence sites of A.conyzoides were obtained through the whole-province investiga-tion and sample field investigation in Yunnan province,and the distribution pattern and diffusion trend of A.conyzoides in Yunnan province were predicted based on the MaxEnt ecological model.According to the index sys-tem of risk analysis of forestry hazards and pests of State Forestry Administration,the risk of invasion of A.conyzoides in Yunnan Province was analyzed.The results showed that:(1)A.conyzoides was widely distributed in 72 counties(districts)in 14 prefectures(cities)of Yunnan Province,mainly in Dehong,Lincang,Xishuangbanna,Pu'er,Hong-he and other border areas,and in the dry and hot valley areas of Nujiang and Jinsha rivers;(2)The MaxEnt predic-tion results showed that under the condition of climate change,A.conyzoides would spread to Kunming,Chuxiong,Yuxi,Honghe and other high-altitude areas in central Yunnan,and four climate factors,including precipitation in the wettest season,seasonal variation of precipitation,annual average temperature,and annual precipitation,were the main limiting factors affecting the distribution of A.conyzoides in the future.(3)The results of risk analysis showed that A.conyzoides was a highly dangerous invasive plant in Yunnan.
基金项目
云南省重点研发项目(202302AE090017)
国家重点研发子课题项目(2022YFF130240203)
维普
万方数据