中国陆地边境地区人口变动趋势研究——基于"三普"至"七普"数据
A Study of the Trend of Population Change in China's Terrestrial Border Areas Based on the Analysis of Five Censuses from 1982 to 2020
段成荣 1盛丹阳2
作者信息
- 1. 中国人民大学 人口与发展研究中心,北京 100872
- 2. 中国人民大学 社会与人口学院,北京 100872
- 折叠
摘要
文章回顾我国陆地边境地区人口发展的历史脉络,利用历次全国人口普查数据考察当前陆地边境人口发展的新形势和新特征,分析边境人口变动的本质及未来中长期的影响.千百年来,边境人口的充实受到历朝历代政府高度重视,大规模移民前赴后继,奠定了我国边境的人口基础.在我国人口内在自然负增长转变的过程中,边境地区人口先于全国进入人口负增长阶段.2010～2020年,我国边境县总人口首次出现了整体性负增长.人口负增长边境县的数量迅速增加,由零星分布向连片蔓延.边境人口负增长的本质是外生性人口负增长,与所在区域的人口负增长密切相关,深层原因是滞后的区域社会经济发展和自然条件.边境县的人口负增长与人口结构的失衡相互强化,对边境地区人口、环境、经济、社会治理可持续发展及边境安全都将造成长期影响.为此,要将边境人口发展纳入边疆治理、国家战略的考量中,重新审视边境人口安全问题,加强边境人口变动的监测,有计划有目的地探求最大程度保证边境安全、制定符合边境地区现代化发展利益的人口战略.
Abstract
This paper reviews the historical context of the population development in China's terres-trial border areas,investigates the new situation and new characteristics of the population develop-ment in terrestrial border areas by using the data of the national population censuses,and analyzes the nature of the population change in the border areas and its influence from the medium-to long-term perspective.For thousands of years,the governments of all historical periods attached great impor-tance to the population increase in the border areas,and large-scale immigration laid the population foundation of the border areas.In the process of the internal natural negative growth of population in China,the population in the border areas has entered the negative growth stage before other places of the country.From 2010 to 2020,the total population of China's border counties showed an overall negative growth for the first time.The number of the border counties with negative population growth has increased rapidly,from scattered distribution to continuous wide spread.The essence of the negative population growth in the border areas is the exogenous negative population growth,which is closely related to the regional negative population growth,and the underlying cause is the slow regional socio-economic development and its natural conditions.The negative population growth of the border counties and the imbalance of the population structures intensify each other,which will have a long-term impact on the sustainable development of the population,the environment,the econ-omy,the social governance and border security in the border areas.In the new situation of population change,it is necessary to incorporate the development of the border population into the consideration of the border governance and national strategies,re-examine the issue of the border population securi-ty,strengthen the monitoring of the border population change,explore the maximum guarantee of the border security in a planned and purposeful way,and formulate population strategies that meet the in-terests of the modernization process of the border areas.
关键词
陆地边境/人口负增长/老龄化/外生性负增长/长期影响Key words
terrestrial border area/negative population growth/aging/exogenous negative growth/long-term impact引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD172)
出版年
2023
NETL
NSTL
万方数据