云南边境地区人口与经济耦合协调变迁研究(2000～2020)
On the Changes in Population Size and Economic Coupling Coordination in the Border Areas in Yunnan Province(2000～2020)
晏月平 1徐岗程1
作者信息
- 1. 云南大学民族学与社会学学院,云南昆明 650091
- 折叠
摘要
云南边境地区传统地理区位劣势明显,"兴边强边、稳边富民"行动和现代化建设面临一定挑战.如何破解区位劣势积极融入边贸口岸经济,有力推进人口与经济有序协调分布,探索富有边境地区特色创新发展的"云南模式",对推进沿边地区高质量全局发展意义非凡.文章使用2000年以来3次全国人口普查与历年云南统计年鉴数据,探讨了2000～2020年云南省边境县(市)人口与经济耦合协调的变迁趋势,并构造面板数据基于OLS回归分析人口因素的影响.结果表明:2000～2020年,该区域人口负增长范围持续扩大,经济发展总体积极向好,人口与经济耦合协调度不断提高,但区域内发展差距不断扩大;边境县(市)应综合调控区域人口空间格局,以适配区域经济社会发展,积极提升人口质量,释放人口质量红利;加快就业人口向文旅产业转移,积极发展农文旅、民俗风情旅边境全域游;抓住机遇释放边贸与口岸红利,简化通过报关流程,助力边贸进一步发展.
Abstract
The traditional geographical disadvantages of Yunnan's border areas are obvious,and there are certain challenges to the "consolidating the border area,prospering the border area and en-riching the border people" initiative and to the path of modernization.How to solve the geographical disadvantages and actively integrate into the trading-port economy in the borderland,how to vigorous-ly promote the orderly and coordinated distribution of population and economy,how to explore the"Yunnan model"of innovative development with characteristics of the border areas,and how to pro-mote the overall high-quality development in the border areas are of great significance.This paper u-ses the data from CHINA POPULATION CENSUS YEARBOOK between 2000 and 2020,and YUN-NAN STATISTICAL YEARBOOK to explore the changing trend of population and economic cou-pling coordination in the border counties(cities)of Yunnan province between 2000 and 2020,and con-struct the panel data to analyze the influencing factors based on the OLS regression.It has the follow-ing conclusions:from 2000 to 2020,the negative population growth in this region is expanding,the e-conomic development is generally positive,the coupling coordination of population and economy is im-proving,but the development gap within the region is increasing;the border counties(cities)should flexibly regulate the regional population distribution in order to match the socio-economic development of the region,actively improve the quality of the population,further reap the quality-based demo-graphic dividends,accelerate the transfer of the employed population to the cultural and tourist indus-try,actively develop agricultural and cultural tourism,folk-custom border tourism,seize the oppor-tunity to reap the border-trade and port-trading dividends,simplify the process of the customs clear-ance,and help further development of the border trade.
关键词
云南边境/人口与经济/耦合协调/OLS回归/人口质量红利Key words
border area of Yunnan province/population and economy/coupling coordination/OLS regression/quality-based demographic dividends引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(21FRKB001)
云南省省级部门决策咨询研究课题(ZD202114)
云南大学创新团队建设项目(CY2262420230)
出版年
2023
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据