By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating heterogeneity in population structure,this paper investigates the impact of population aging on China's natural interest rates,and explores the measures and paths for improving the monetary policy framework in the"zero-interest-rate bound".Findings reveal:firstly the aging population has led to a downward trend in natural interest rates,leading to a downward adaptive adjustment of policy interest rates;secondly,in a low interest rate environment,the"zero-interest-rate floor"constraint squeezes the operating space of central bank interest rates,making it difficult for monetary policy to function;finally,targeted macro prudential policies within the monetary policy framework can serve as a ballast,alleviating the impact of the"zero-interest-rate bound"constraint on monetary policy,and the"credit output ratio"is more suitable as a measure of financial stability.This paper provides important insights into the impact of population aging on China's long-term economic growth and explores the improvement of the monetary policy framework system to address the aging era.
关键词
人口老龄化/自然利率/零利率下限/宏观审慎政策
Key words
Population Aging/Natural Interest Rate/Zero Lower Bound/Macro-prudential Policy
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