The Refutation and Innovation of Cycle Theory in China's Industrial Development
Since the reform and opening-up,China's rapid,stable,and long-term economic growth from 1978 to 2008 and the mid-term fluctuations in the context of the new industrial revolution since 2008,have methodologically refuted traditional industrial cycle theories.Practice has proven that the fundamental reasons for the formation of ultra-long-term cycles from the reform and opening-up period to 2008,and the intrinsic mechanism of mid-term economic downturns under the backdrop of the new industrial revolution since 2008,are closely related to the upgrading of consumption structure and the corresponding increase in demand.Based on the above analysis and reflections on traditional cycle theories and price mechanisms,a new theoretical logic about economic cycles is reconstructed:the fundamental cause for the formation of economic cycles lies in the contradiction between the functional expectations of demand(consumption structure upgrading)and technological innovation on the supply side.Among them,demand is a fundamentally endogenous variable,and the endogeneity of technological innovation exists only as an attachment to the endogeneity of demand.The relationship between savings rate and investment rate in economic growth,the multiplier effect of investment,the acceleration principle of consumption,etc.,are all specific manifestations of the realization of new demand functional expectations driving the economy.The continual response of technological innovation to new demand functional expectations is the key to achieving ultra-long-term economic growth.
万方数据
维普
