首页|印度2024年大选结果的原因分析及对其内外政策的影响

印度2024年大选结果的原因分析及对其内外政策的影响

扫码查看
咄咄逼人的执政风格及其所导致的政治恐惧,是印人党在2024年大选中表现不如预期的主要原因。这表明印度社会的主要特征仍然是多元且碎片化,印度政治的自动平衡机制与纠错机制仍然有效,印度教民族主义浪潮面临天花板,莫迪总理的个人魅力也遭受政治审美疲劳症的挑战。但是,印人党和莫迪总理并没有面临真正的、旗鼓相当的对手。印人党的得票率虽稍低于2019年大选,但仍显著高于2014年大选。印人党的对手是反印人党,莫迪总理的对手是反莫迪,反对党联盟尚未形成颠覆性的政治浪潮和符号。印人党被迫组建联盟政府,但这将是印度独立以来最强的一任联盟政府。印度政府推进新改革措施的能力将被削弱,但执行现有政策措施的能力仍然很强。印度与周边国家的关系将会受到一些影响,但与大国之间关系和对外政策原则所受到的影响将是有限的。
India's 2024 General Election and the Impact on Its Domestic and Foreign Policies
The aggressive governance style and the political fear it has caused are the main reasons for the BJP's underperformance in 2024 General Elections of India. This indicates that Indian society remains fundamentally diverse and fragmented,with its automatic balancing and error-correcting mechanisms still effective. The wave of Hindu nationalism is reaching a climax,and Prime Minister Modi's personal charm is also challenged by political aesthetic fatigue. However,neither the BJP nor Modi faces a truly competitive opponent. Although the vote share of the BJP was slightly lower than that in the 2019 General Elections,it remains significantly higher than that in the 2014 General Elections. The BJP's opposition is primarily anti-BJP,and Modi's opponent is mainly anti-Modi. The opposition alliance has not created a transformative political wave or symbol. While the BJP has formed a coalition government,it is the strongest since India's independence. The government's capacity to promote new reforms will weaken,but it can still implement existing policies effectively. India's relations with neighbors may be somewhat affected,but ties with major powers and its foreign policy principles will remain largely limited.

India2024 General ElectionsBJPINCForeign Policies

张家栋、何雪倩

展开 >

复旦大学南亚研究中心

复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院

印度 2024年大选 印人党 国大党 对外政策

2024

云南社会科学
云南省社会科学院

云南社会科学

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.532
ISSN:1000-8691
年,卷(期):2024.(6)