Establishment of prediction of peptic ulcer in children and analysis on its prediction efficiency
Objective To establish the prediction model of peptic ulcer in children in Yunnan Province,and analyze its prediction efficiency.Methods A total of 171 children with peptic ulcer were included as observation group and 150 children with chronic gastritis as control group.Single factor and multivariate statistical methods were used to compare and analyze the differences of clinical data and laboratory indexes between the two groups,and the related factors with statistical differences were substituted into logistic model to judge the risk factors of peptic ulcer in children,and the prediction model of digestive ulcer in children was constructed based on the results.Hosmer-Lemeshow test and ROC curve were used to analyze the calibration degree and prediction efficiency of the model.Results Complications,HB,CRP,ERS,bile acid,13-carbon breath test and abnormal occult blood in stool were the risk factors of peptic ulcer in children.The AUC of the prediction model for digestive tract ulcer in children was 0.834(0.743～0.926),with a sensitivity of 81.25％and a specificity of 76.39％.Conclusions The prediction model based on many factors affecting the occurrence of peptic ulcer in children has high calibration and prediction efficiency.
peptic ulcer in childrenprediction modelclinical value
万方数据
维普
