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胜利油田开发规划技术研究进展及展望

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自20世纪90年代起,结合国际油价变化、勘探开发形势以及技术的进步,胜利油田形成一套与油田各开发阶段战略需求紧密契合的开发规划技术体系.立足胜利油田中长远开发规划编制实践,梳理了胜利油田开发规划技术的发展历程,介绍了各阶段开发规划技术发展的历史背景、技术思路以及面临问题.经过持续攻关和实践,胜利油田开发规划技术主要经历了方案优选、产量规划、效益规划、不确定性规划4个阶段,各阶段形成的开发规划技术有效支撑了开发规划方案的编制,指导了油田发展方向.围绕胜利油田可持续发展目标,明确了胜利油田现有开发规划技术存在新领域开发经济规律把握难度大、中长远规划与年度生产部署的结合需加强、规划编制的战略性及前瞻性需提升3方面的问题.针对存在问题,提出了下步胜利油田开发规划技术将向更注重不确定性及多目标、更加智能化、精细化以及更加具有战略性、前瞻性发展,为油田战略决策提供技术支撑.
Progress and prospects of development planning technologies in Shengli Oilfield
Since the 1990s,Shengli Oilfield has integrated fluctuations in international oil prices,exploration and development trends,and technological advancements and developed a technical system for development planning that closely aligns with the stra-tegic needs of each stage of oilfield development.Based on the practice of formulating mid-to-long-term development plans for Shengli Oilfield,this paper traced the evolution of development planning technologies in Shengli Oilfield and introduced the histori-cal background,technical approaches,and challenges encountered by the development planning technologies during each stage.Through persistent research and practical application,the development planning technologies in Shengli Oilfield have progressed through four primary stages:scheme optimization,production planning,beneficial planning,and uncertainty planning.The devel-opment planning technologies developed during these stages have effectively supported the formulation of development planning strategies,guiding the oilfield's development.With a focus on the sustainable development goals of Shengli Oilfield,it has been identified that there are three key issues for the development planning technologies to address:the challenge of mastering the eco-nomic principles of new field development,the need to reinforce the integration of mid-to-long-term planning with annual produc-tion schedules,and the requirement to elevate the strategic and forward-looking aspects of plans.In response to these challenges,the development planning technologies in Shengli Oilfield will prioritize uncertainty and multi-objective planning,alongside ad-vancements in intelligence and precision,as well as strategic and futuristic development,so as to provide technical support for the strategic decision-making of oilfields.

mid-to-long term planningoptimization modelsindicator forecastingdevelopment coursetechnical outlook

肖武、赵伟、王滨、刘新秀

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中国石化胜利油田分公司 勘探开发研究院,山东 东营 257015

中长远规划 优化模型 指标预测 发展历程 技术展望

2024

油气地质与采收率
中国石油化工股份有限公司胜利油田分公司

油气地质与采收率

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:2.177
ISSN:1009-9603
年,卷(期):2024.31(5)