A Regional Logistics Volume Prediction Method Based on the Development Level of Smart Logistics
The prediction of regional logistics volume serves as a crucial basis for resource allocation,planning and design of logistics system.With the continuous development of smart logistics,the logistics resources of the whole society have been integrated and optimized more efficiently,and tiers between logistics and commercial circulation have become closer.Consequently,the development level of smart logistics will affect the regional logistics operation mode and efficiency,and thus affect the region logistics volume.However,there is currently a lack of effective prediction methods for regional logistics volume based on the development of smart logistics.Thus,it is necessary to predict regional logistics volume considering the development of smart logistics.This paper constructs a logistics volume prediction model considering the development level of regional smart logistics.First,this paper builds the evaluation index system of the development level of regional smart logistics from the four aspects of the economic environment,development scale,innovative activities,and smart technology of the logistics industry.Second,this paper uses factor analysis and auto-regressive moving average(ARIMA)model to measure the development level of regional smart logistics historically and predict the future.On this basis,this study constructs a regression model to predict regional logistics volume based on the development level of smart logistics and historical logistics volume.Specifically,the factor analysis is applied to eliminate redundant or insignificant information in the evaluation indicators and avoid subjective bias in setting the weights of evaluation indicators.The ARIMA model is utilized to depict the temporal trends of evaluation indicators and estimate the predicted values for the development level of smart logistics.The multivariate regression is employed to capture the correlation between regional logistics volume and smart logistics.This paper also makes an empirical analysis with the actual data of T city in China,and collects data from Chinese national bureau of statistics,bureau of statistics of T city,and non-public statistics of T city.Three main results are listed.First,this paper highlights that the development of smart logistics is not an independent process but rather a transformation and upgrading for the development of traditional logistics.Thus,the development level of smart logistics should be comprehensively evaluated by integrating traditional logistics evaluation indicators with those related to smart logistics technologies.Second,this paper identifies a significant correlation between the development of smart logistics and regional logistics volume.The proposed approach can fully consider the impact of smart logistics,thereby making regional logistics volume prediction more scientific and comprehensive.Third,an empirical analysis of the prediction model is conducted to validate the operability of the proposed approach.This paper also finds that the proportion of logistics volume in T city affected by smart logistics has been increasing over 70％after 2020.This indicates that the development of smart logistics has enhanced the logistics service capabilities of T city,and effectively promoting the growth of regional logistics volume.This paper makes two innovative contributions.First,this paper establishes a scientific,comprehensive,and integrated evaluation system for the development of smart logistics,effectively assessing the development level of regional smart logistics.Second,this paper proposes a new approach for predicting regional logistics volume by combining multiple models,and effectively accounts for the impact of regional smart logistics,filling a gap in related research approaches.This study also provides two insights.First,governments should consider multiple dimensions such as e-commerce industry development,enterprise innovation,and smart logistics technology when assessing the development level of smart logistics.Second,governments can not only focus on traditional logistics sevices,but also guide innovative development and smart transformation of logistics firms to enhance logistics service quality and promote the growth of logistics volume.
smart logisticsdevelopment levellogistics volumefactor analysisARIMA model
万方数据
维普
