Construction and Validation of a Predictive Model for Concurrent Pulmonary Infection in Liver Cirrhosis
Objective:Explore the mathematical model of risk factors for pulmonary infection in patients with liver cirrhosis and conduct validation analysis.Methods:Select 200 patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent treatment in the department of Gastroenterology at our hospital from July 2023 to March 2024.Among them,43 patients had concurrent pulmonary infec-tions(infection group),and another 157 patients did not have pulmonary infections(non infection group).Use univariate and multivariate mathematical models to analyze the general data,disease data,laboratory indicators,and other related factors of the two groups of patients with pulmonary infections,and draw a column chart prediction model.Results:The age of patients in the infected group was higher than that in the non infected group,and the proportion of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the infected group was higher than that in the non infected group,with statistical significance(P＜0.05).The white blood cell test values,proportion of patients with hepatorenal syndrome,proportion of patients with sponta-neous peritonitis,proportion of patients with concurrent ascites,proportion of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding,proportion of patients with electrolyte imbalance,and proportion of patients with hypoalbuminemia in the infection group were all higher than those in the non infection group,and the differences were statistically significant(P＜0.05).The results of the logistic regression model showed that patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,hepatorenal syndrome,spontaneous peritonitis,ascites,upper gastrointestinal bleeding,electrolyte imbalance,and hypoalbuminemia had a significantly higher risk of pulmonary infection(P＜0.05).The column chart model has good diagnostic value(C-index=0.801,95％CI:0.656～0.883).The AUC value of the area under the ROC curve predicted by the column chart model for pulmonary infec-tion in patients with liver cirrhosis is 0.886,95％CI:0.805～0.931,and the total predicted critical score is 267 points.Conclusion:There are many risk factors for concurrent pulmonary infection in liver cirrhosis,and establishing a column chart model for each factor has high clinical practical value in predicting the risk of pulmonary infection in these patients.
万方数据
维普
