Objective:To explore the influencing factors of 28-day death in critically ill patients,and to build a prognostic model of critically ill patients with indicators within 12 hours after admission to ICU.Methods:The data of critically ill pa-tients were received from the ICU of our hospital from January 2021 to June 2022 were analyzed retrospectively.The influen-cing factors were screened by multivariate binary logistic regression model,and a prediction model was constructed to visualize the influence of influencing factors on prognosis by Nomogram model.Results:A total of 259 critically ill patients were includ-ed,of whom 180 survived and 79 died after 28 days in ICU.The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.021,95％CI:1.002～1.040),systolic blood pressure(OR=0.990,95％CI:0.981～0.999),serum creatinine(OR=1.142,95％CI:1.018～1.281),oxygenation index(OR=0.998,95％CI:0.996～1.000),Glasgow coma score(OR=0.992,95％CI:0.868～0.981)were the influential factors for 28-day death in critically ill patients(P＜0.05).The prediction model of 28-day death in critically ill patients was established as P=1/(1+e-z),Z=0.021 x age-0.010 x SBP+0.133 x SCr-0.002 x O1-0.081 x GCS.The predictive AUC of this model for critically ill patients was 0.752(95％CI:0.685～0.819,P＜0.001),sensitivity was 0.658,and specificity was 0.767.Conclusion:Age,systolic blood pressure,serum creatinine,oxygenation index and Glasgow coma score within 12 hours of ICU admission are the influ-ential factors for 28-day death of critically ill patients in this study.The predictive model established within 12 hours of ICU admission has good value in early prediction of critically ill patients.
关键词
危重症患者/重症监护室/12h内相关指标/预测模型
Key words
Critically ill patients/Intensive care unit/indicators within 12 hours index/Prediction model
维普
万方数据