The Prognostic Model of Critically Ill Patients was Established within 12 Hours after Admission to ICU
Objective:To explore the influencing factors of 28-day death in critically ill patients,and to build a prognostic model of critically ill patients with indicators within 12 hours after admission to ICU.Methods:The data of critically ill pa-tients were received from the ICU of our hospital from January 2021 to June 2022 were analyzed retrospectively.The influen-cing factors were screened by multivariate binary logistic regression model,and a prediction model was constructed to visualize the influence of influencing factors on prognosis by Nomogram model.Results:A total of 259 critically ill patients were includ-ed,of whom 180 survived and 79 died after 28 days in ICU.The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.021,95％CI:1.002～1.040),systolic blood pressure(OR=0.990,95％CI:0.981～0.999),serum creatinine(OR=1.142,95％CI:1.018～1.281),oxygenation index(OR=0.998,95％CI:0.996～1.000),Glasgow coma score(OR=0.992,95％CI:0.868～0.981)were the influential factors for 28-day death in critically ill patients(P＜0.05).The prediction model of 28-day death in critically ill patients was established as P=1/(1+e-z),Z=0.021 x age-0.010 x SBP+0.133 x SCr-0.002 x O1-0.081 x GCS.The predictive AUC of this model for critically ill patients was 0.752(95％CI:0.685～0.819,P＜0.001),sensitivity was 0.658,and specificity was 0.767.Conclusion:Age,systolic blood pressure,serum creatinine,oxygenation index and Glasgow coma score within 12 hours of ICU admission are the influ-ential factors for 28-day death of critically ill patients in this study.The predictive model established within 12 hours of ICU admission has good value in early prediction of critically ill patients.
Critically ill patientsIntensive care unitindicators within 12 hours indexPrediction model
万方数据
维普
