Clinical Value of Constructing a Risk Model for Patients with AECOPD
Objective To study the influencing factors of acute exacerbation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)within 1 year,and to establish and verify the risk model.Methods The general data of 612 AECOPD patients in the Department of Respiratory Medicine of Chaohu Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2020 to December 2021 were collected.Among them,324 AECOPD patients from January to December 2020 were used as the modeling group,and 288 AECOPD patients from January to December 2021 were used as the validation group.The factors used to establish the risk model of AECOPD patients were selected by Logistic regression univariate analysis,and the risk predictors were analyzed by Logistic regression multivariate analysis,and the final risk model was established accordingly.The predictive value of this model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC),calibration curve and clinical decision curve(DCA).Results FEV1％predicted value,previous exacerbations,EOS％,serum albumin,and the history of triple drug use(ICS+LABA+LAMA)were the factors influencing the occurrence of acute exacerbationsin the patients within one year.From this,the risk prediction model formula was established:P=1/(1+e-x),x=2.796-0.018×FEV1％predicted value+1.516×previous exacerbations-0.098×serum albumin+0.206×EOS％-1.169 xhistory of triple medication,e was the natural logarithm.The area under the ROC curve was 0.839,and the optimal cut-off value was 0.221 based on the approximate index(0.579),with a sensitivity of 80.00％and a specificity of 77.90％.Conclusion FEV1％predicted value,previous exacerbations,EOS％,serum albumin,and the history of triple use(ICS+LABA+LAMA)are the factors influencing the occurrence of acute exacerbations in the patients within one year.Based on this,the risk prediction model of acute exacerbation in COPD patients is successfully constructed.The model has good discrimination,calibration,and clinical decision-making benefits,and can assist healthcare professionals in the early intervention of patients at high risk of exacerbation to prevent further progression.
Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseaseAcute exacerbationRisk model
万方数据
维普
