Objective To establish a nomogram prediction model for the risk of postoperative incision infection in elderly patients with facial skin tumors and verify its predictive ability.Methods The medical records of 447 elderly patients who underwent skin tumor resection in our hospital from January 2018 to December 2021 were collected by retrospective analysis.According to the diagnostic criteria,they were divided into infection group(31 patients)and non-infection group(416 patients).Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to determine the independent risk factors for postoperative infection,and a nomogram containing these factors was established.The internal validation was performed by Bootstrap sampling method,and the predictive ability of the model was evaluated by consistency index(C-index),receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC curve),calibration curve and decision curve(DCA curve).Results The incidence of postoperative incision infection in 447 patients was 6.94％.Univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in smoking history,diabetes history,surgical site,surgical type,postoperative antibiotic use,postoperative rehabilitation education and nursing between the two groups(P＜0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that the independent risk factors for postoperative incision infection in elderly patients with facial skin tumors were smoking,diabetes,surgical sites of nose,cheek and ear,flap surgery,no use of antibiotics after surgery,and no rehabilitation education and nursing after surgery.According to the risk factors,the nomogram prediction model was successfully constructed.The C-index of the nomogram prediction model was 0.811,and the area under the ROC curve was 0.811.The calibration curve showed that the nomogram was well calibrated,and the DCA curve showed that the nomogram model had good clinical application ability.Conclusion Smoking,diabetes,surgical site,type of operation,no use of antibiotics after operation and no rehabilitation education and nursing after operation are independent risk factors for postoperative incision infection in elderly patients with facial skin tumors.The clinical prediction model based on these factors has good stability and certain prediction efficiency.
Facial skin tumorIncision infectionNomogramPredictive model
维普
万方数据
