基于平均预期寿命的我国人口健康水平时空分异与影响机制分析
Analysis of Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Influencing Mechanism of Health Level of Population in China Based on Average Life Expectancy
梁晓璇 1张新辉 2陈功1
作者信息
- 1. 北京大学人口研究所, 北京, 100089
- 2. 北京体育大学中国体育战略研究院,人文学院, 北京, 100084
- 折叠
摘要
目的:以平均预期寿命为指标探究我国人口健康水平时空分异格局、交互关系及其影响机制,为推进健康中国建设提供参考.方法:采用LISA时空跃迁分析来揭示人口健康水平的空间关联和转移特征,运用地理加权回归分析经济、人口、环境和医疗卫生因素塑造我国人口健康水平分异格局的动力机制.结果:我国人口健康水平呈现"东高西低"的不平衡发展态势,但近 20 年来地区间的相对差异有所收敛,平均预期寿命的泰尔指数从2000 年的0.098 降至2020 年的0.060.健康水平区域分布具有明显的空间依赖特征,但健康关联效应逐渐减弱,未发生类型改变的研究单元占比从 77%下降至 48%.经济、人口、环境和医疗卫生因素共同影响我国人口健康水平的空间分异格局.结论:地理因素对我国人口健康水平的制约在不断弱化,健康相对落后地区之间的关联效应不强且受到医疗卫生经济发展的促进效应更大.未来在健康中国战略的引导下,地区间健康水平的差异也有望进一步收敛.
Abstract
Objective:To explore the spatio-temporal evolution pattern,interaction relationship and influencing mechanism of health level of population based on average life expectancy in China,so as to provide references for promoting the construction of Healthy China.Methods:LISA time-space transition analysis was used to reveal the spatial correlation and transfer characteristics of health level.Besides,geographically weighted regression was used to analyze the dynamic mechanism which was shaped by eco-nomic,population,health and environmental factors.Results:The spatial pattern of health presents an unbalanced development trend of"high in the east and low in the west",but the relative differences between regions have been converging in the past 20 years and the Theil index of average life expectancy has dropped from 0.098 in 2000 to 0.060 in 2020.It is obvious that the regional distribution of health level showes spatial dependence characteristics.Whereas,the lock-in effect is gradually weakened and the proportion with no type change decreases from 77%to 48%.Moreover,the economic,population,health and environmental factors are shaping the spatial variation pattern of health.Conclusion:The restriction of geographical factors on health level of population in China is weakening and the correlation effect between relatively deprived areas is infirm and the promotion effect of medical and health economic development is stronger.In the future,under the influence of Healthy China,the health differences between re-gions are expected to be reduced.
关键词
人口健康/预期寿命/时空分异/影响机制Key words
Population Health/Life Expectancy/Spatio-temporal Differentiation/Influencing Mechanism引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金(72104009)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD186)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据