Objective:To analyze the main correlation factors of the visit rate of grassroots medical and health institutions a-mong residents in Ningxia,and predict the visit rate of grassroots medical and health institutions from 2023 to 2027,so as to pro-vide decision-making reference for the government to further optimize the order of first visit at the grassroots level.Methods:The visit rate of grassroots medical and health institutions among residents in Ningxia from 2013 to 2022 as the reference series were se-lected,and the indicators including number of grassroots medical and health institutions,number of beds,number of health techni-cians,average outpatient expenses and average hospitalization expenses were compared.This study used grey correlation analysis to verify the main correlation factors,used the GM(1,1)model to predict the data of each correlation factor from 2023 to 2027,constructed a prediction model,and selected the relatively optimal genetic algorithm to optimize the BP neural network model to predict the grassroots medical treatment rate from 2023 to 2027.Results:The grey correlation degree between each index and the grassroots medical treatment rate was greater than 0.6 among residents.The number of grassroots medical and health institutions(γ=0.9199)had the highest correlation degree with the grassroots medical treatment rate,followed by the number of urban and ru-ral residents covered by basic medical insurance(γ=0.9055),the population mortality rate(γ=0.8526),the number of beds in grassroots medical and health institutions(γ=0.8464),the number of urban workers covered by basic medical insurance(γ= 0.8230)and the number of people aged 65 and over(γ=0.8100).The model showed that the rate of grassroots care visits would rise to 42.6827%in 2023 and 45.2257%in 2027.Conclusion:The rate of grassroots consultation among residents in Ningxia is strongly related to the allocation of grassroots medical and health resources,the number of people enrolled in basic medical insur-ance,the health status of the population,the number of elderly population,medical expenses and residents'income level.The pre-diction accuracy of gray-GA-BP neural network combination model is high,and the grassroots consultation rate will gradually in-crease from 2023 to 2027.
Grassroots Medical and Health InstitutionVisit RateResidentNingxia
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据
