Objective:To analyze the influencing factors and development trends of the health burden of rural residents in China from 2013 to 2020,so as to provide reference for better meeting rural residents'demand for health services and reducing health burden.Methods:The influencing factors of rural residents'health burden were explored by Grey correlation analysis,and the spatial differences of economic and social development,population structure and health resource allocation on rural residents'health burden were revealed.The growth trend of rural residents'health burden was predicted by Grey prediction model.Results:The overall health burden of rural residents in the country had been on the rise,with the health burden coefficient increasing from 0.071 in 2013 to 0.083 in 2020.It's expected to further increase to 0.121 by 2030.Factors closely associated with the health burden of rural residents included personal health expenditure,the rural old-age dependency ratio,the number of family health service providers,the total number of tertiary hospitals,and the number of practicing doctors in urban medical institutions.However,the number of consultations and treatments in grassroots medical and health institutions did not highly correlate with the number of ad-missions.It should also be noted that the mechanisms of the various factors affecting the health burden of rural residents can differ across different regions.Conclusion:From 2013 to 2020,the health burden of rural residents in China shows characteristics of rap-id growth and obvious spatial pattern distribution.In the future,it is still necessary to further promote the construction of county medical community,organize a system of contracted services for family doctors,rural doctors and general practitioners,and com-prehensively promote the health development of rural health services focusing on the aging response.
万方数据
维普
