Objective To understand the current status and distribution characteristics of the disease burden of rabies in China from 2004 to 2019,to analyze in depth the spatiotemporal distribution of rabies cases at national monitoring sites in China,and to explore the driving effects of meteorological factors on the occurrence of rabies,so as to provide scientific support for the formulation of epidemic prevention strategies.Methods Case data of rabies in China from 2004 to 2019 were collected,including time,region,and population,as well as concurrent monthly meteorological data,to describe the current status of disease burden and epidemic characteristics.SaTScan 9.0 was used to conduct spatiotemporal seasonal scanning to explore the clustering effect in various provinces.By fitting a Quasi-Poisson distributed lag non-linear model,the study examined the driving effects of monthly average relative humidity,monthly average relative temperature,monthly cumulative precipitation,and sunshine duration on the incidence of rabies.Results From 2004 to 2019,China reported a total of 26 605 cases of rabies,with Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region ranking first in the number of cases.The annual estimated percentage change in the disease burden of rabies showed a downward trend.The seasonal peak concentrated from June to November,with a log-likelihood ratio of 516.14.The incidence of rabies in China was mainly concentrated in the southern regions and was expanding to the central regions.The incidence of rabies was significantly influenced by relative humidity,temperature,precipitation,and sunshine duration on a temporal scale.The average relative humidity was 74.75％,the average temperature was 8.725 ℃,the average precipitation was 59.25 mm,and the cumulative sunshine duration was 56.575 h.The relative risk of monthly mean temperature for rabies incidence peaked at a lag of 3 months,with a relative risk of 4.48.The relative risk of total sunshine duration and rabies incidence peaked at a lag of 2 months,with a relative risk of 1.21.Conclusion Rabies occurs throughout the year nationwide,with a higher incidence in summer and autumn.The disease burden of rabies shows a downward trend,but rabies cases still pose a risk of disease,and the areas of occurrence are relatively concentrated,showing clear regional characteristics,mainly distributed in central and southern China.Meteorological factors such as temperature and sunshine duration play a significant role in driving the occurrence of the disease.
关键词
狂犬病/时空分析/分布滞后非线性模型/气象因素
Key words
rabies/spatiotemporal analysis/distributed lag non-linear models/meteorological factors
万方数据