Construction and validation of Nomogram prediction model for the risk of gastric polyps combination with colorectal polyps
Objective To construct Nomogram prediction model for the risk of gastric polyps complicated with colorectal polyps,and further verify the prediction efficiency of the model.Methods A total of 679 patients with gastric polyps diag-nosed by gastroscopy and complete colonoscopy in the Department of Gastroenterology,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region People's Hospital from September 2021 to November 2022 were retrospectively collected as the modeling group;according to the results of colonoscopy,they were divided into colorectal polyps group,and no colorectal polyps group.Another 241 pa-tients with gastric polyps diagnosed by gastroscopy and complete colonoscopy from December 2022 to May 2023 were collected as the validation group.The influencing factors of gastric polyp complicated with colorectal polyp were analyzed,the Nomogram was established to predict the risk of gastric polyps complicated with colorectal polyps;receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the discrimination of the prediction model;calibration curve was used to evaluate the degree of data fitting;and decision curve analysis diagram was used to evaluate the bene fit of using the model.Results There was no significant difference in general data between the modeling group and the verification group(P＞0.05).Colorectal polyps were found in 268 of the modeling group.There were statistically significant differences in nonal-coholic fatty liver disease,Helicobacter Pylori(H.pylori)in-fection,type 2 diabetes mellitus,hypertension,hyperhomocysteinemia,hypertriglyceridemia,and age between colorectal polyps group and no colorectal polyps group(P＜0.05).Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(OR=3.317),H.pylori infection(OR=3.018),hyperhomocysteinemia(OR=3.697),hypertriglyceridemia(OR=4.248),and age(OR=1.065)were independent risk factors for gastric polyps with colorectal polyps(P＜0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of the ROC curve predicted by the Nomogram in the modeling group was 0.742,and the AUC of the verification group was 0.737,indicating that the model had a good degree of differentiation.The calibration curve indicates that the actual incidence and the predicted inci-dence had a good fit.The decision curve shows that the benefit threshold of the model was wide and had practical value.Conclusion The prediction model combined with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease,H.pylori infection,type 2 diabetes melli-tus,hypertension,hyperhomocysteinemia,hypertriglyceridemia,and age has good predictive ability,which can provide ref-erence for medical personnel to judge the risk of gastric polyps complicated with colorectal polyps.
Gastric polypColorectal polypsNomogramPrediction model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
