Analysis of influencing factors and establishment of onset risk prediction model of prediabetes in young and middle-aged people in community
Objective To analyze the influencing factors of prediabetes in young and middle-aged people in community,and to establish and verify a visual evaluation tool to assist the grass-roots general practitioners to predict the onset risk of prediabetes in young and middle-aged people in community.Methods A total of 4 307 young and middle-aged diabetes high-risk population who underwent physical examination at a community health service center in Urumqi,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from June 2021 to August 2023 were selected as the study subjects.Among them,868 people with prediabetes were included in prediabetes group and 3 439 people with normal blood glucose were included in normal blood glucose group.They were divided into a training set(3 014 people)and a validation set(1 293 people)according to a ratio of 7∶3.The clinical data of training set were analyzed,the independent predictive factors were screened by Lasso regression analysis,and the influencing factors of the occur-rence of prediabetes in young and middle-aged people in community were analyzed by logistic regression analysis,and a nomogram risk prediction model for prediabetes in young and middle-aged in community was established,validation set was used to evaluate feasibility of the model,and the discriminability,accuracy,and nomogram risk prediction model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve,correction curve,and de-cision curve analysis.Results There were statistically significant differences in age,body mass index,waist circumference,smoking history,hyper-tension,family history of diabetes,alanine transaminase,aspartate transaminase,high-density lipoprotein cholesterol,low-density lipoprotein cholesterol,triglyceride,hyperuricemia,daily thousand step equivalent,and alcohol consumption between prediabetes group and normal blood glu cose group(P＜0.05).Age,sex,hypertension,family history of diabetes,high-density lipoprotein cholesterol,triglyceride,waist circumference,daily thousand step equivalent,and alcohol consumption were selected as pre-dictor variable.Age(OR=1.095),hypertension(OR=5.781),family history of diabetes(OR=2.215),low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(OR=4.190),elevated triglyceride(OR=2.792),waist circumference(OR=1.089),and alcohol consumption(OR=3.368)were risk factors of the occurrence of prediabetes in young and middle-aged people in community(P＜0.05),female(OR=0.310),and daily thousand step equivalent(OR=0.641)were protective factors(P＜0.05).The area under the curve of nomogram risk prediction model predicted the occurrence of prediabetes in young and middle-aged people in community of training set and validation set were 0.888 and 0.870,respectively.The nomogram risk prediction model predicted the occurrence of prediabetes in young and middle-aged people in commu-nity with a good fit.The nomogram risk prediction model predicted a higher net benefit for the occurrence of prediabetes in young and middle-aged people in community.Conclusion In this study,a high-precision nomogram risk prediction model for the occurrence of prediabetes in young and middle-aged people in community is successfully established,which improve the ability of grass-roots general practitioners in early identification and screening of high-risk prediabetes in young and middle-aged communities to some extent.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
