Development and evaluation of a nomogram-based prediction model for influencing factors of osteoporotic lumbar vertebral fractures in the elderly and its application value
Objective To create a risk prediction model for osteoporotic lumbar fractures in the elderly through a nomogram,and to evaluat its pre-cision.Methods A total of 82 elderly patients with osteoporotic lumbar fractures admitted to Suizhou Central Hospital,Hubei University of Medicine from January 2020 to January 2023 were included as the observation group,In addition,82 healthy elderly people who underwent physi-cal examination in Suizhou Central Hospital,Hubei University of Medicine were selected as the control group.The general data and related clinical data were collected,and the influencing factors of osteoporotic lumbar fractures in the elderly were analyzed.Correction curve and decision curve analysis are used to evaluate the nomogram prediction model.Results There were statistically significant differences in age,smoking history,frac-ture history,osteoporosis grade,serum adiponectin(APN),β-C-terminal telopeptides of type Ⅰ collagen(β-CTX),procollagen type Ⅰ N-termi-nal propeptide(P Ⅰ NP),osteocalcin(OC),bone alkaline phosphatase(BAP),25 hydroxyvitamin D3(25[OH]D3),and lumbar bone mineral density(BMD)between the two groups(P＜0.05).Age,smoking history,fractures history,osteoporosis grade,APN,β-CTX,P Ⅰ NP,OC,BAP,25(0H)D3,and BMD were all independent risk factors for osteoporotic lumbar vertebral fractures in the elderly(P＜0.05).The nomogram prediction model has a good fit.When the risk threshold was 0.2-0.8,the nomogram prediction model has the greatest net benefit.The nomogram prediction model predicted that area under the curve of osteoporotic lumbar fractures in the elderly was 0.980.Conclusion Osteoporotic lumbar fracture in the elder-ly is a complex problem caused by multiple factors.Comprehensive knowledge of relevant risk factors(age,smoking history,fracture history,osteo-porosis grade,APN,β-CTX,P Ⅰ NP,OC,BAP,25(OH)D3,BMD)is expected to reduce the risk of osteopolytic lumbar fracture in the elderly.
Osteoporotic lumbar fracturesBiochemical indices of bone turnoverRisk factorsLogistic regression analysis
万方数据
维普
