Epidemiologic feature analysis and SARIMA prediction model construc-tion of hand-foot-mouth disease in Urumqi from 2011 to 2020
Objective To analyze the epidemiologic feature of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)in Urumqi from 2011 to 2020,and to construct SARIMA model to forecast the trend of incidence,providing basis for formulating prevention and control strategies for HFMD.Methods The de-scriptive epidemiologic feature of HFMD case data in Urumqi from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed,and the SARIMA model was established.Results The average annual incidence of HFMD in Urumqi from 2011 to 2020 was 68.60/100 000,with 32 severe cases and 4 deaths.From 2011 to 2019,the incidence was higher every other year.The incidence rate in 2018 was the highest in nearly 10 years(105.69/100 000),showed obvious season-ality and bimodal prevalence.The highest annual incidence of HFMD was in the economic development district(head district),reaching 107.35/100,000.The average annual incidence rate was 80.55/100 000 for males and 56.12/100 000 for females,and the male-to-female ratio was 1.50∶1.00,the incidence of male was higher than femal from 2011 to 2019,and the difference was statistically significant(P＜0.05),while the in cidence rate of males and females in 2020 had no statistical significance(P＞0.05).The minimum age of onsets were one day and the maximum age was 67 years.The number of cases in children under 5 years old was the highest(85.82％).The main occupation is childcare and diaspora chil-dren.A total of 7 778 HFMD samples were detected from 2011 to 2020,and the positive rate was 81.15％,with other enteroviruses accounting for the highest proportion(46.28％).SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model was the optimal model.Conclusion There are significant periodic,seasonal,gender,and age differences in HFMD in Urumqi,continuous monitoring should be done to strengthen the prevention and control of key groups.The SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model fits well and is consistent with the actual incidence trend.It can be used to predict the future incidence of HFMD in Urumqi,and has certain theoretical value for guiding the prevention and control of HFMD in Urumqi;focusing on the distribution and changes of pathogens,and improves the typing of laboratory viruses.
Hand-foot-and-mouth diseaseEpidemiologic featureSARIMA model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
