Construction and validation of nomogram risk prediction model for recurrent second primary thyroid cancer in female patients with breast cancer
Objective To analyze the influencing factors of second primary thyroid cancer(SPTC)in female patients with breast cancer,construct a nomogram risk prediction model and verify its validity.Methods The clinical data of 456 female patients diagnosed with breast cancer in Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January 2015 to January 2020 were retrospectively analyzed,and they were divided into the training set(320 cases)and the validation set(136 cases)according to the ratio of 7:3.The training set was divided into the recurrent SPTC group(160 cases)and the non-recurrent SPTC group(160 cases)according to whether SPTC occurred.The influencing factors of SPTC recurrence in female patients with breast cancer were analyzed,and a nomogram prediction model was constructed;validation sets were used for external validation;and the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve,and decision curve analysis.Results There were significant differences in body mass index(BMI),anxiety or depression,thyroid basic disease,the largest primary site of breast cancer,molecular typing,estrogen receptor status,progesterone receptor(PR)status,Ki-67 count,and lymph node metastasis between the recurrent SPTC group and the non-recurrent SPTC group(P＜0.05).BMI(OR=2.085),anxiety or depression(OR=2.176),thyroid basic disease(OR=6.525),and PR status(OR=3.387)were risk factors for recurrent SPTC in female patients with breast cancer(P＜0.05),Ki-67 count(OR=0.987)and lymph node metastasis(OR=0.376)were protective factors(P＜0.05).ROC curve results showed that area under the curve of the training set and the verification set were 0.755 and 0.824,respectively;the general trend of calibration curve of the training set and the verification set was close to ideal curve;and the model exhibited a positive net benefit within the threshold range of 0.22-0.88.Conclusion The nomogram risk prediction model of recurrent SPTC in female patients with breast cancer based on the influencing factors has good clinical predictive efficacy,and can provide theoretical basis for carrying out early clinical evaluation and implementing personalized nursing intervention.
Breast cancerThyroid cancerNomogram prediction modelRisk factorsFemaleNursing intervention
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万方数据
