Objective To explore the equity of health human resources allocation in Xinjiang,and to forecast the number of various types of health personnel,so as to provide a reference for health authorities to formulate policies.Methods Using the concentration index,the current situation of health human resources allocation in Xinjiang from 2014 to 2018 was analyzed,and an ARIMA model was established to predict the number of healthcare workers from 2019 to 2025.Results The results showed that the uneven distribution of health human resources was a common problem in Xinjiang,and healthcare professionals were gradually leaving the field.It was suggested that the equity of health human resources allocation should be gradually improved.The prediction results of the ARIMA model were relatively reasonable,and the model predicted that there would be a shortage of medical and nursing staff and that the structure of healthcare workers needed to be comprehensively optimized.Conclusion It is recommended that health human resources allocation in all regions of Xinjiang should be further improved,that the gap in health resources between regions should be reduced,that efforts to introduce and cultivate talents should be increased,and that attention should be paid to internal personnel restructuring while the macro-regulation of healthcare resources is being carried out.
Health human resourcesEquityAutoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
