首页|卒中预警综合征患者就医延迟风险预测模型的构建与验证

卒中预警综合征患者就医延迟风险预测模型的构建与验证

Construction and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Medical Delay in Patients with Stroke Warning Syndrome

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目的 探讨卒中预警综合征(stroke warning syndrome,SWS)患者就医延迟的影响因素,以此构建并验证风险预测模型.方法 选取 2021 年 10 月至 2023 年 4 月在我院治疗的SWS患者 192 例,按 7∶3 比例通过随机数字法抽选分为建模集和验证集,根据建模集患者有无就医延迟分为延迟组和非延迟组,通过多因素Logistic回归分析影响因素,基于回归分析法构建预测模型,采用工作特征曲线、校准曲线及临床决策曲线检验预测效能.结果 年龄、NIHSS评分、发病地点到医院的距离、脑卒中家族史、SHKS评分、SSS评分、SSRS评分均是SWS患者就医延迟的影响因素(p<0.05),模型具有良好的预测性能和临床收益.结论 SWS患者就医延迟风险预测模型预测效能良好,可为医护人员改善患者就医行为提供依据.
Objective To explore the influencing factors of delayed medical treatment in patients with stroke warning syndrome(SWS),and construct and validate the risk prediction model.Methods A total of 192 patients with SWS treated in our hospital from October 2021 to April 2023 were selected and divided into a modeling set and a validation set by the random number method at a ratio of 7:3.Patients in the modeling set were divided into a delayed group and a non-delayed group according to whether there was a delay in their medical treatment.Through the multi-factor Logistic regression analysis of influencing factors,a prediction model was established based on the regression method.The prediction efficacy was tested by using the work characteristic curve,calibration curve and clinical decision curve.Results Age,NIHSS score,distance from the place of onset to the hospital,family history of stroke,SHKS score,SSS score,and SSRS score were all influential factors in the delay in medical treatment for patients with SWS(p<0.05),and the model had good predictive performance and clinical benefit.Conclusion The predictive efficacy of the risk prediction model for delayed medical treatment for patients with SWS is good and may provide a basis for healthcare professionals to improve patients'medical visits behavior.

Stroke warning syndrome(SWS)Delays for medical treatmentPrediction model

王智慧、陈晓芳、许景景

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绍兴市第七人民医院

卒中预警综合征 就医延迟 预测模型

2024

医院管理论坛
北京大学

医院管理论坛

影响因子:0.807
ISSN:1671-9069
年,卷(期):2024.41(8)