基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的我国村级医疗卫生资源预测研究
Prediction of Quantity of Village Clinics and Village Health Personnel in China Based on Grey GM(1,1)Model
李浩鑫 1胡润华 2孙点剑一3
作者信息
- 1. 北京大学肿瘤医院暨北京市肿瘤防治研究所
- 2. 北京大学公共卫生学院
- 3. 北京大学公共卫生学院;北京大学公众健康与重大疫情防控战略研究中心
- 折叠
摘要
目的 描述并预测我国村卫生室和村卫生人员数量及发展趋势,为保持乡村基层医疗卫生资源高效发展提供参考.方法 从2012年至2023年《中国统计年鉴》和《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》中,获取到除香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和中国台湾省以外,各省(自治区、直辖市)村卫生室和村卫生人员的数据;描述2011年至2022年村卫生室和村卫生人员的数量、构成与变化趋势,采用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对未来五年村卫生室和村卫生人员的数量进行短期预测.结果 2011年至2022年,村卫生室的数量呈降低趋势,年均增长率为-1.09%,而每万乡村人口村卫生室数量呈增长趋势,平均增长了1.56%.村卫生室数量2027年的预测值为56.6(55.8,57.4)万间,为2011年的85.4%.村卫生人员数量2027年的预测值为138.6(131.9,145.3)万人,为2011年的107.6%.结论 我国村卫生人员的数量先增后减,村卫生室的数量持续降低,国家仍需要采取更有效的措施保持我国乡村基层医疗卫生资源的高效发展.
Abstract
Objective To describe and predict the development of village clinics and village health personnel in China,providing reference for maintaining the efficient development of rural grassroots medical and health resources.Methods The data of village clinics and village health personnel in all provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the Central Government)except Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province of China were obtained from the China Statistical Yearbook and China Health Statistical Yearbook from 2012 to 2023.The composition and changing trends of village clinics and village healthcare personnel were described from 2011 to 2022,and the grey prediction model GM(1,1)was used to make short-term predictions on the number of village clinics and healthcare personnel in the next five years.Results From 2011 to 2022,the number of village clinics showed a decreasing trend with an average annual growth rate of-1.09%,while the number per 10000 rural population showed an increasing trend with an average growth rate of 1.56%.In 2027,the predicted number of village clinics would be 0.566(0.558,0.574)million,which would be 85.4%of 2011.The predicted number of village health personnel in 2027 would be 1.386(1.319,1.453)million,which would be 107.6%of 2011.Conclusion The number of village health personnel in China will first increase and then decrease,while the number of village clinics will continue to decrease.It needs to take more effective measures to maintain the efficient development of grassroots medical and health resources in rural areas.
关键词
村卫生室/村卫生人员/灰色模型/预测研究Key words
Village clinics/Village health personnel/Grey model/Predictive study引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据