Spatial-temporal Differences and Influencing Factors of Grain Production Resilience in China from Perspective of Climate Change——A Case Study of Major Grain Producing Areas
Facing the increasingly severe climate change situation,improving the resilience of food production is particularly important.Taking 13 major grain producing areas in China as the research objects,based on the influence of climate change on grain production,a comprehensive evaluation index system was established.By using entropy method,kernel density estimation,theil index,gray prediction model and grey relational degree model,the grain production resilience of each region from 2009 to 2021 was measured and evaluated,the characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution and regional differences were analyzed,the development situation in the next three years was further predicted,and the factors affecting the resilience of grain production under different climatic conditions and their differences were explored.It could be found that:the main grain producing areas had shown a steady upward trend during the research period,but there was a certain gap in the promotion rate in different regions.The development of grain production resilience level in the four climatic zones was relatively balanced.The overall difference in the main grain producing areas was small,which showed a general trend of first decreasing and then increasing,in recent years,mainly attributed to regional differences.It is expected that nine major grain producing areas would enter the ranks of high grain production resilience in 2025.The main grain producing areas will be influenced by rural labor outflow,urbanization rate,dependence on foreign trade of agricultural products,annual precipitation,financial support for agriculture,and other factors.Finally,based on the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors,it was suggested that enhancing the resilience of grain production required coordinated regional development,focusing on the role of government and market in the grain field,and promoting the development of climate adaptive agriculture,in order to promote the comprehensive production capacity of grain in major grain producing areas.
major grain producing areasclimate changegrain production resilienceadaptabilityspatial-temporal differences
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