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计及源端不确定性的综合能源日前调度方法研究

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可再生能源出力的多重不确定性对系统安全、经济运行的影响,已成为以风、光为主体的高比例可再生能源综合能源系统亟须解决的问题.在构建的日前调度模型基础上,基于可再生能源发电功率概率预测模型,以其预测置信度为决策变量,引入经济性、风电机组及光伏机组发电功率越限惩罚三个评价指标,提出一种外层为多目标优化、内层为两阶段鲁棒优化的日前调度方法.仿真结果表明:通过对可再生能源发电功率概率预测模型置信度的寻优,可以得到兼顾鲁棒性和经济性的日前调度计划.该方法可充分考虑可再生能源多重不确定性对日前调度计划的影响,为含高比例可再生能源的综合能源系统的安全、高效运行提供指导.
Research on Integrated Energy Day-Ahead Scheduling Method Taking into Account Source-Side Uncertainty
The impact of multiple uncertainties of renewable energy power output on the safe and economic operation of the system has become a problem that needs to be solved urgently for the high proportion of renewable energy integrated energy system mainly based on wind and light.On the basis of the constructed day-ahead scheduling model,based on the probabilistic prediction model of renewable energy power generation,by taking its prediction confidence as the decision variable,and introducing three evaluation indexes,namely,economy,wind turbine and photovoltaic unit power overrun penalties,a day-ahead scheduling method with multi-objective optimization on the outer layer and two-stage robust optimization on the inner layer is proposed.The simulation results show that the day-ahead scheduling plan can be obtained by optimizing the confidence level of the renewable energy generation power probability prediction model,which takes both robustness and economy into account.The method can fully consider the impact of multiple uncertainties of renewable energy sources on the day-ahead scheduling plan,and provide guidance for the safe and efficient operation of an integrated energy system containing a high proportion of renewable energy sources.

High percentage of renewable energyIntegrated energy systemMulti-energy couplingDay-ahead optimal schedulingMulti-objective optimizationUncertainty

牛洪海、李益国、张琦雪

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东南大学能源与环境学院,江苏南京 210096

南京南瑞继保电气有限公司,江苏南京 211102

高比例可再生能源 综合能源系统 多能耦合 日前优化调度 多目标优化 不确定性

国家自然科学重点基金资助项目

51936003

2024

自动化仪表
中国仪器仪表学会 上海工业自动化仪表研究院

自动化仪表

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.655
ISSN:1000-0380
年,卷(期):2024.45(1)
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