Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Housing Price Expectations on Residents'Savings
This study constructs a two-period model incorporating expected hous-ing prices and examines the relationship between housing price expectations and sav-ings across different household types utilizing data from the China Household Fi-nance Survey(CHFS)and China's macroeconomic indicators.It finds that the fac-tors influencing the relationship between heterogeneous household savings and hous-ing price expectations vary.Model analysis reveals that the pivotal factor for the shift between positive and negative correlations in housing price and savings growth is the magnitude of the expected housing price growth rate.This finding aligns with the in-consistency noted in the current literature regarding the relationship between housing price fluctuations and savings.Building on the model analysis,we simulate house-hold consumption decisions numerically to align with the actual savings rates of Chi-nese residents between 1990 and 2019.Furthermore,we investigate how the savings behavior of households with varying housing price expectations changes in response to anticipated rises and falls in housing prices.
万方数据
维普
