Development of predictive model for cryptogenic stroke in patients with right to left shunt through patent fora-men ovale
Objective To develop a model for predicting cryptogenic stroke(CS)in patients with right to left shunt(RLS)through the patent foramen ovale(PFO).Methods We consecutively included 66 patients with CS confirmed by cranial magnetic resonance imaging and PFO-related RLS verified by contrast-enhanced transcranial Doppler ultrasonogra-phy and transesophageal echocardiography who were admitted to the Department of Neurology of The First Affiliated Hospi-tal of Soochow University from January 2020 to October 2022.83 patients diagnosed with PFO-RLS without stroke during the same period were included in the non-stroke(NCI)group.We analyzed the clinical data,anatomical parameters of PFO,and PFO-RLS status of patients;explored factors affecting the risk of CS in patients with PFO-RLS through a multi-variable logistic regression analysis;and built a combined prediction model,and evaluated its performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)in comparison with those of individual indicators with the use of the Delong test.Results At baseline,the CS group had significantly higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels and D-dimer levels as well as significantly greater PFO diameter and length than the control group(all P<0.05).The mul-tivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that hypertension,higher D-dimer levels,larger PFO diameter,and longer PFO length were factors affecting the risk of CS in patients with PFO-RLS,with the odds ratios[95%confidence intervals(CI)]being 4.16(1.31-13.15),1.01(1.00-1.01),2.29(1.14-4.61),and 1.19(1.03-1.36),respectively(all P<0.05).The AUCs(95%CI)of the combined prediction model,hypertension,D-dimer,PFO diameter,and PFO length were 0.79(0.71-0.86),0.64(0.55-0.73),0.62(0.53-0.71),0.67(0.58-0.75),and 0.65(0.56-0.74),respectively.According to the Delong test,the AUC of the combined prediction model differed sig-nificantly from those of individual indices(all P<0.05).At the optimal cut-off value,the sensitivity and specificity of the combined prediction model were 0.73 and 0.76,respectively.Conclusion Hyperten-sion,increased D-dimer levels,larger PFO diameter,and longer PFO length were factors associated with CS in patients with PFO-RLS.The combined prediction model is effec-tive in predicting the risk of CS for patients with PFO-RLS.
Patent foramen ovaleRight to left shuntCryptogenic strokePrediction model
万方数据
维普
