In order to solve the deficiency problem existing subway construction risk management methods have in dealing with uncertainty,a BN-based risk management method was worked out.Firstly,main factors influencing subway construction risk management were identified and a BN topology model was built for the management.Then,the probabilities of subway construction risk under different conditions were predicted using forward causal reasoning and formation mechanism of subway construction risk was analyzed with reverse diagnosis reasoning.Finally,the sensitive risk factors were found with sensitivity analysis based on MI index.This method was employed in subway construction risk management practice.The results show that probability of subway construction project safety risk is 2.24％ and failure to deal with hidden danger existing in construction timely is the most important factor influencing the probability.
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据
