航班运行风险因素耦合性分析
Coupling analysis of risk factors in flight operation
王岩韬 1唐建勋 1赵嶷飞1
作者信息
- 1. 中国民航大学 空管运行安全技术国家重点实验室,天津300300
- 折叠
摘要
为定量分析风险多因素间互相影响,以民用航空安全统计数据为基础,使用N-K模型和耦合度模型分别对航班运行数据进行计算得到耦合值.系统分析在地面和空中时航班运行风险耦合情况.结果表明:空中运行航班,受空管因素影响不大,当机组方面存在风险时,需特别注意天气与机械故障;航班在地面时,避免3个及以上因素同时发生即可有效管控风险.无论在地面或空中,机械维修与天气因素耦合度值较高,两者同时发生将严重威胁运行安全.2种模型所得耦合度数值趋势吻合度较高.
Abstract
In order to quantitatively analyze the effects of risk factors on each other a concept of risk coupling for flight operation was introduced.On the basis,based of available civil aviation safety statistics,degrees of risk coupling were calculated for a number of types of coupling by using the N-K model and the coupling model.Risk coupling conditions were systematically analyzed for flights on the ground and those flying.The study shows that mechanical maintenance factor has a moderate degree of coupling with the weather factors,so their coexistence should be avoided,that the air traffic control factors have only a little effect on the flights flying,that when there is a risk to the crew,special attention should be paid to both the weather and the mechanical failure,that for flights on the ground,coexistence of three or more risk factors should be avoided,and that there is a high coincidence degree between the results obtained by using the two models.
关键词
航班安全/运行风险耦合/N-K模型/耦合度模型/G1法Key words
flight safety/operations risk coupling/N-K model/coupling model/G1 model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
民航局科技项目(20150204)
中央高校基本科研业务费资助(3122014D041)
出版年
2017
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据