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考虑不确定性的多情景应急车辆综合调度模型

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为提升不同应急情景下各救援力量的联合应急救援效率,降低救援风险,减少财产损失,采用情景分析的方法对应急状态不确定性进行参数估计,引入风险厌恶水平,构建一种以总调度成本和风险最小化为目标的应急车辆综合调度模型;运用非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)求解目标函数值,通过仿真案例对比分析考虑情景与不考虑情景2种情况下的求解结果;利用模型分析不同情景下惩罚成本与风险厌恶水平的关系,给出合理风险厌恶水平值,选定最终调度方案.结果表明:该模型与方案能够有效满足不同应急情景下需求点的需求,提高救援效率,解决在情景与风险共同作用下的应急车辆综合调度问题.
Multi-scenario integrated scheduling model of emergency vehicles considering uncertainty
In order to improve the joint emergency rescue efficiency of rescue forces under different emergency scenarios,and to reduce rescue risk and property losses,a scenario analysis method was used to estimate the parameters of emergency state uncertainty,and an integrated emergency vehicle scheduling model aimed at minimizing the total scheduling cost and risk was established by introducing risk aversion level.Secondly,Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms(NSGA-Ⅱ)was used to solve the objective function value,and the simulation case was used to compare and analyze the solution results under the consideration of the scenario and without consideration of the scenario.Finally,the relationship between penalty cost and risk aversion level in different scenarios was analyzed,the reasonable risk aversion level value was given,and the final scheduling scheme was selected.The results show that the model and scheme can effectively meet the needs of different emergency situations,improve rescue efficiency,and solve the comprehensive scheduling problem of emergency vehicles under the combined effects of scenarios and risk.

emergency rescuescenario analysisscheduling schemerisk aversion levelrescue efficiency

许钧、李筱、王修来

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南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,江苏南京 210044

南京信息工程大学人才大数据研究院,江苏南京 210044

东部战区总医院博士后科研工作站,江苏南京 210028

不确定性 应急情景 应急车辆 综合调度模型 调度方案 风险厌恶水平 救援效率

国家社会科学基金资助

22BGL282

2023

中国安全科学学报
中国职业安全健康协会

中国安全科学学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.548
ISSN:1003-3033
年,卷(期):2023.33(11)
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