中国安全科学学报2023,Vol.33Issue(11) :174-180.DOI:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0304

基于情景相似的电网企业台风灾害应急决策

Research on typhoon disaster emergency decision-making of power grid enterprises based on similar scenarios

盛伟 关城 张苏 傅炜 王金贵
中国安全科学学报2023,Vol.33Issue(11) :174-180.DOI:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0304

基于情景相似的电网企业台风灾害应急决策

Research on typhoon disaster emergency decision-making of power grid enterprises based on similar scenarios

盛伟 1关城 2张苏 1傅炜 3王金贵1
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作者信息

  • 1. 福州大学环境与安全工程学院,福建福州 350116
  • 2. 国网智能电网研究院有限公司,北京 102209
  • 3. 国网莆田供电公司,福建莆田 351100
  • 折叠

摘要

为提升电网企业应对台风灾害的应急准备能力和决策能力,首先,基于情景构建理论和灾害系统理论,分析近15年42起电网企业应对台风灾害的事故案例,构建电网企业台风灾害"事件-情景-场景-任务-能力"结构化层次模型及其指标体系;其次,依据各指标特征(模糊型、判断型、数值型)匹配相应的相似度计算方法;然后,利用G1法与熵值法在确定主、客观权重基础上得出综合权重,从而计算整体相似度和"预警-响应"2阶段相似度;最后,以某市电网企业应对"莫兰蒂"台风为目标案例进行决策研究.结果表明:构建的"事件-情景-场景-任务-能力"结构化层次模型相比于传统模型可实现分阶段检索,更能满足应急过程中预警和响应阶段的决策需求.

Abstract

This study aims to improve the emergency preparedness and emergency decision-making ability of power grid enterprises.Firstly,based on the scenario construction theory and disaster system theory,42 accident cases of power grid enterprises responding to typhoon disasters in recent 15 years were analyzed,and the structured hierarchical model of"event-scenario-scene-task-capability"and its index system of typhoon disaster of power grid enterprises were constructed.According to the characteristics of each index(fuzzy,judgment and numerical),the corresponding similarity calculation methods were matched.G1 method and entropy method were used to determine the subjective and objective weights to obtain the comprehensive weights,so as to calculate the overall similarity and the early-warning and response two-stage similarity.Finally,a decision-making of a power grid enterprise in a certain city in Typhoon"Meranti"was taken as the target case.The results show that,compared with the traditional model,the structured hierarchical model of"event-scenario-scene-task-capability"can realize the phased retrieval,which can better meet the decision-making needs of the early warning and response stage in the emergency process.

关键词

情景构建/电网企业/台风灾害/应急决策/相似度

Key words

scenario construction/power grid enterprises/typhoon disaster/emergency decision/similarity

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基金项目

福建省自然科学基金资助(2020J01505)

国家电网有限公司科技项目(5700-202019185A-0-0-00)

出版年

2023
中国安全科学学报
中国职业安全健康协会

中国安全科学学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.548
ISSN:1003-3033
参考文献量12
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