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中低空通用航空飞行计划安全风险评估

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为促进我国中低空空域通用航空安全飞行,建立一种中低空通用航空飞行计划安全风险评估体系.首先,根据通用航空规章政策,分析中低空通用航空飞行计划的安全影响因素以确定风险评估指标,包括飞行计划复杂程度、各类设备完备情况、障碍物位置高度、飞行活动冲突和人员环境情况;其次,利用最优最劣法(BWM)处理指标重要度偏好评价信息,构建模型求得风险评估指标的权重;然后,基于采集得到的飞行计划相关信息,根据指标特征分别提出风险值计算模型;最后,加权得到总风险值并由极低—极高划分为5个风险水平等级,搭建中低空通用航空飞行计划风险评估体系.研究结果表明:利用该风险评估体系得到权重最高指标为行人风险,权重最低指标为飞行计划复杂度风险.计算某通用航空飞行计划风险值,得到此计划风险值最高的指标为飞行计划复杂度风险、飞行活动冲突风险和放行评估风险,总风险值为0.088,风险等级为1级.根据此飞行计划和其他飞行计划总风险值的比较可知该飞行计划为更优计划.
Safety risk assessment for low and medium altitude general aviation flight plans
To promote the air safety of low and medium altitude general aviation,a safety risk assessment system for low and medium altitude general aviation flight plans was established.Firstly,combined with the regulations and policies,safety factors of general aviation flight plans were investigated to obtain the risk assessment indicators,which included the complexities of flight plans,the completeness of equipment,the sites and heights of obstacles,the conflicts of flights,and personnel and environmental conditions.Secondly,the BWM was utilized to process the evaluation information of indicator importance preference,and thus the weights of risk assessment indicators were determined.Thirdly,a series of risk computation models were developed according to the characteristics of indicators based on flight plan information.Finally,the total risk value was calculated and classified into five risk levels from very low to very high,and the risk assessment system for low and medium altitude general aviation flight plans was developed.The results show that the indicator of pedestrian risk has the biggest weight and the indicator of flight plan complexity risk has the smallest weight by using the proposed method.The indicators with high risk of a general aviation flight plan are the complexity of flight plan,the collision of flights and the dispatch release.The total risk value is 0.088 and the risk level is the lowest level.The flight plan is the optimal choice through comparing the total risk values.

low and medium altitude general aviationflight planrisk assessmentevaluation indicatorbest-worst method(BWM)

黄静洋、潘璇、付小蓉、高健伟、潘卫军

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中国民用航空飞行学院空中交通管理学院,四川广汉 618307

洛阳北郊机场有限责任公司航务管理部,河南洛阳 471100

中低空通用航空 飞行计划 风险评估 评估指标 最优最劣法(BWM)

中国民用航空飞行学院青年基金资助

Q2019-078

2023

中国安全科学学报
中国职业安全健康协会

中国安全科学学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.548
ISSN:1003-3033
年,卷(期):2023.33(12)
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