Influence and prediction of climatic factors on forest fires in China
In order to explore the influence mechanism of climatic factors on the weight of forest fire accident,firstly,based on the data of forest fire accidents in China from 2011 to 2020,four kinds of climatic factors,including annual average pressure,temperature,precipitation and sunshine time,were selected as characteristic variables.Secondly,the results of forest fire danger zoning were obtained by the hierarchical clustering method,and the grey correlation coefficient was calculated to obtain the influence degree of climate factors on forest fire.Then,the regression model of four types of climatic factors in China was established to obtain the weight ranking of the impact of climatic factors on forest fires,and the risk value in 2021 was predicted.The results show that the fire danger areas in China could be divided into 10 categories under the influence of climatic factors.The influence of climate on the number of forest fires per unit area is ranked as follows:annual average precipitation＞annual average pressure＞annual average temperature＞annual average sunshine time.Linear regression analysis and grey correlation degree analysis have similarities in the ranking results of fire danger zone.The relative error between the predicted risk value by linear regression analysis and the actual value in 2021 is less than 5％.
万方数据
维普
