Causation analysis of ship accident severity based on ordered choice model
In order to explore the factors that affect the severity of ship accidents,a ship accident analysis method based on an ordered choice model was put forward.Firstly,based on 604 investigation reports of ship accidents in coastal waters issued on the official website of the China Maritime Safety Administration and its direct subordinate organizations,as the dependent variable,the severity of ship accidents was divided into minor accidents,general accidents,and larger and above accidents.Secondly,from five aspects of ship,environment,crew,management,and accident,19 potential influencing factors were selected.Thirdly,the ordered choice model(including the ordered Logit model and ordered Probit model)was utilized to identify the significant factors affecting the severity of ship accidents.In addition,the marginal effect of the best model was used to quantify the influence direction and degree of significant factors on the severity of ship accidents.The findings indicate that the significant influencing factors identified by the two ordered models are the same,including ship operation status,strong wind,failure to adopt safe speed,improper hazard judgment,improper use of navigation equipment,insufficient staffing,inadequate safety management,autumn,winter,coastal routes,collision,and self-sinking.All the significant influencing factors meet the parallel line hypothesis.The fitting effect of the ordered Probit model is better than that of the ordered Logit model.All the significant influencing factors have a positive effect on larger and above ship accidents.In terms of impact degree,collision is the largest(the absolute value of the marginal effect is 20.44％),and improper hazard judgment is the smallest(4.94％).
万方数据
维普
