Fire type discrimination of hazardous chemicals tanker based on multinomial Logistic
In order to effectively prevent and control fire accidents of hazardous chemical tanks during transportation,it is necessary to identify the type of tank fire quickly and correctly.The statistical data of domestic hazardous chemicals tanker fire accidents from 2013 to 2020 was analyzed with Python software.According to the characteristics of fire accidents,a regression model with multiple logistic regression theory was established.The three common fire types of hazardous chemicals tankers,namely,jet fire,pool fire and BLEVE(Boiled Liquid Evaporate Vapor Explosion)fire,were regarded as the categories of explained variables.Through the analysis of accident data,a total of 15 fire factors in five aspects,namely,space and road characteristics,time and meteorological characteristics,personnel factors,vehicle and equipment factors,and hazardous chemicals factors,were determined.A multiple logistic regression equation of fire probability of hazardous chemicals tankers was constructed,and the explicitness and accuracy of the equation were tested.The determined model was proved by examples.The probability of three types of fire in hazardous chemicals tankers was obtained.The accident prevention measures were proposed.The results show that it is the most likely a pool fire for a liquefied natural gas tanker,with a probability of 0.55.The second one is jet fire,and the last one is the boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion fire.To reduce the probability of pool fires,measures such as improving the mechanical strength of the container and reducing the collision strength could be adopted to prevent leakage holes of large size in the container.Measures such as slowing down the leakage rate,controlling the leakage range and efficient scientific fire extinguishing are adopted to decrease sequences of tank fire.
multiple Logistic regressionhazardous chemicalstankerfire type discriminationhighway transportation
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
