摘要
为从历史化工事故中吸取经验教训以指导化工安全生产管理实践,提出基于文本挖掘和改进决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)的化工事故关键因素识别方法.首先,利用文本挖掘技术充分挖掘1 627份化工事故调查报告的文本信息,结合相关文献及法律法规提取14项化工事故影响因素;然后,使用基于α水平集的模糊DEMATEL法计算化工事故影响因素表现水平,识别出关键因素;最后,分析关键因素与其他因素之间的相互关联性并揭示化工事故产生机制.结果表明:8项化工事故因素被识别为关键因素,分别是极端天气、规章制度、技术规程、隐患排查、风险管控、教育培训、监督管理、经营管理;同时,8项关键因素对设施设备、物料反应、职业素养、岗位职责、应急管理、安全投入等影响因素产生直接影响,最终导致化工事故发生.
Abstract
To draw lessons from historical chemical accidents and guide the practice of chemical safety production management,a method for identifying critical factors in chemical accidents based on text mining and improved DEMATEL method was proposed.Firstly,text mining technology was used to fully mine the text information of 1 627 chemical accident investigation reports,based on which 14 chemical accident influencing factors were extracted according to related literature,laws and regulations.Then,the fuzzy DEMATEL method based on alpha-level sets was used to calculate the performance levels of the factors affecting chemical accidents.Finally,the correlations between critical factors and other factors were analyzed and the mechanism of chemical accidents was revealed.The results show that 8 chemical accident influencing factors are identified as the critical factors,i.e.,extreme weather,regulations,technical procedures,hidden danger investigation,risk control,education and training,supervision and management,and operation management.These 8 critical factors have direct impact on the influence factors such as facilities and equipment,material reactions,occupational quality,job responsibilities,emergency management,and safety investment,which eventually lead to chemical accidents.
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