首页|基于改进的云模型-FMEA的油气管道风险排序

基于改进的云模型-FMEA的油气管道风险排序

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为解决传统故障模式和影响分析法(FMEA)存在故障优先排序不准确、风险评价主观性过强的问题,提出一种基于混合权重-云模型的油气管道故障模式风险评价方法.首先,调研并分析油气管道失效模式与原因,构建系统FMEA模型;然后,提出基于云模型与混合权重法的专家评价意见处理方法,引入博弈论的思想,降低评价结果的主观性与随机性;最后,使用多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)对各个失效模式风险排序,并对比传统FMEA法,验证该方法的可行性与准确性.结果表明:该方法可综合评估管线上各管段的风险因素,量化不同管段上的风险值及同一管段上的最主要的失效模式,实现管道高风险区域的有效定位及管段上风险因素排序.
Risk ranking of oil and gas pipeline based on improved cloud model-FMEA
In order to solve the problems of inaccurate failure priority ranking and excessively subjective risk evaluation in traditional FMEA,a risk evaluation method of oil and gas pipeline failure modes based on a hybrid weights-cloud model was proposed.Firstly,the failure modes and causes of oil and gas pipelines were investigated and analyzed,and the systematic FMEA mode was constructed.Then an expert evaluation opinion processing method was proposed based on the cloud model and the hybrid weight method.The game theory was introduced to reduce the subjectivity and randomness of the evaluation results.Finally,VIKOR was used to rank the risk of each failure mode.The feasibility and accuracy of this method was verified by comparing with the traditional FMEA method.The results show that the method can comprehensively assess the risk factors of pipeline sections,quantify the risk values of different pipeline sections and identify the most important failure modes of the same pipeline section,realizing the effective positioning of pipeline high-risk areas and the ranking of the risk factors of pipeline sections.

cloud modelfailure mode and effects analysis(FMEA)oil and gas pipelinesrisk rankinggame theoryvise kriterijumski optimizacioni racun(VIKOR)

王东营、陈小平、刘权、赵天浩、闫序

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国家管网集团北京管道有限公司 技术研究中心,北京 100101

中国石油大学(北京)油气生产安全与应急技术应急管理部重点实验室,北京 102249

云模型 故障模式和影响分析法(FMEA) 油气管道 风险排序 博弈论 多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)

国家自然科学基金中国石油天然气集团有限公司-中国石油大学(北京)战略合作科技专项

51874324ZLZX2020-05

2024

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.1069

中国安全科学学报
中国职业安全健康协会

中国安全科学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：1.548
ISSN：1003-3033
年,卷(期)：2024.34(5)