Evolutionary analysis of ship collision risk propagation under a complex network
The event tree analysis(ETA)was applied to the risk propagation process of the risk event chains involved in ship collisions for the purpose of developing directed weighted complex,which was then analyzed according to the topological structure.The traditional K-shell decomposition algorithm was adaptively improved to propose the calculation approach for the absolute criticality of the nodes in the CN.The SIR model was utilized to simulate the risk propagation process within the CN,based on which the dynamic sensitivity of the nodes within CN was analyzed under different cases of infection rates and recovery rates.It is pointed out that approximately 25%of the risk events are found as relatively non-active,and the top 10 critical risk events have no relation with the direct causes of the collision accidents.The sensitivity and criticality of risk events are not consistent at all times,and some risk events would not lead to serious consequences or accidents even though countermeasures are not taken.The existence of direct causes for the collision accidents should be acknowledged for the control and management of risk involved in the ship collisions,and much attention should be paid to the risk propagation process.As a result,differential strategies should be taken during the risk management and control to prevent the ship collisions.
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