Coupling mechanism of air traffic operation safety risk based on N-K-FRAM
In order to explore the coupled evolution mechanism of air traffic operation safety risk,clarify the mechanism of coupling and mutation formation in air traffic operation systems based on a combination of the N-K model and FRAM.Firstly,textual data on unsafe incidents was collected.The risk factors involved were categorized,and their historical frequency of occurrence and the coupling relationship between risk factors were obtained.Secondly,the N-K model was used to solve the coupling degree values between air traffic operational risk factors.Finally,based on the output time and accuracy,the variability of the FRAM functional module was quantitatively evaluated,analyzing the coupling mechanism of air traffic operational safety risks,and safety risk analysis was conducted using regional area navigation(RNAV)approach unsafe events and deviation route unsafe events as examples.The results indicate that the evaluation method based on improved FRAM can quantitatively calculate the variability between functional modules in a reasonable and effective manner,weaken the dependence of traditional analysis methods on subjective consciousness,and make the analysis results more objective and scientific.
air traffic operationssafety risk couplingN-K modelfunctional resonance analysis method(FRAM)unsafe events
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
