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基于邻井灰色信息的钻井风险评价方法

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为解决油气开发过程中未知地层钻井风险难以预测的问题,基于邻井灰色信息提出钻井风险评价方法.首先采用三参数区间灰数描述地层信息;其次采用深度平差和加权差值方法,根据邻井灰色信息构建目标井灰色井筒信息矩阵,并在此基础上建立三参数灰色安全钻井液密度窗口;然后依据广义强度—干涉理论,建立包括溢流、井漏、坍塌及吸附卡等风险的评价模型;最后对西部某油田的5 口井进行实例分析.结果表明:引入的井筒信息矩阵概念,描述和计算深度平差和加权插值优化参数,构建目标井井筒信息剖面;利用三参数区间灰数和井筒信息矩阵构建的灰色安全钻井液密度窗口,大幅降低钻井风险评估中的不确定性;基于广义强度—干涉理论的钻井风险评价模型得出的评估结果与实际工况一致.
Drilling risk analysis approach based on historical grey information of adjacent wells
To address the low prediction performance of drilling risks in unknown formations during oil and gas development,a drilling risk assessment approach based on grey adjacent well information was proposed.Firstly,a three-parameter interval grey number was proposed to present formation information.Secondly,the depth adjustment and weighted interpolation methods were used to develop a target well gray wellbore information matrix based on adjacent well information.Subsequently,a three-parameter grey safety drilling fluid density window was proposed.Then,a risk assessment model including overflow,well leakage,collapse,and adhesion was developed based on generalized strength-interference theory.Finally,a case study was performed on five wells in an oil field in western China.The results indicated that introduced concept of wellbore information matrix and optimization parameter description of depth adjustment and weighted interpolation effectively presented the profile of the target well's wellbore information.The grey safe drilling fluid density window developed by three-parameter interval grey numbers and wellbore information matrix significantly reduced uncertainty in drilling risk assessment.The evaluation results from drilling risk assessment model based on generalized strength-interference theory agreed well with that in real situations,providing reliable fundamental knowledge for drilling risk assessment.

adjacent well grey informationdrilling riskthree-parameter interval gray numberwellbore information matrixsafety drilling fluid density window

魏凯、王晨阳、吴德胜、郭勇、廖华林

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长江大学 油气钻完井技术国家工程研究中心,湖北 武汉 430100

长江大学 油气钻采工程湖北省重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430100

中国石油新疆油田分公司 工程技术研究院,新疆 克拉玛依 834000

中国石油大学(华东) 石油工程学院,山东 青岛 266580

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邻井灰色信息 钻井风险 三参数区间灰数 井筒信息矩阵 安全钻井液密度窗口

国家自然科学基金油气钻采工程湖北省重点实验室开放基金自然资源部地热资源重点实验室开放基金

52174017YQZC202104Kldgr2022g05

2024

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.06.1575

中国安全科学学报
中国职业安全健康协会

中国安全科学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：1.548
ISSN：1003-3033
年,卷(期)：2024.34(6)
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