Correlation and traceability analysis of hazardous chemical explosion accidents based on Bayesian network
In order to improve the effectiveness of hidden danger investigation,a reasoning model for hidden danger of explosive accidents of hazardous chemicals was proposed based on BN.First,according to the theory of combustion and explosion and expert experience,the main types of hidden dangers affecting the explosion of hazardous chemicals were determined,and BN model of explosion,leakage and ignition source was constructed.The prior and conditional probabilities of hidden dangers were determined by triangular fuzzy numbers.Then,Bayesian forward reasoning was used to calculate the probability of explosions of hazardous chemicals.Combined with reverse reasoning,the hidden dangers that were most likely to lead to explosion accidents were identified,and the formation of hidden risk factors was traced back.Finally,Bayes sensitivity analysis method was used to determine the key hazards affecting the explosion of hazardous chemicals and the correlation between the accident hazards,and it was verified by an explosion case of oil storage tank.The results show that the explosion probability of the storage tank calculated by causal reasoning is about 4.7%.Equipment overpressure and electric spark have the highest posterior probability,which is the most likely to lead to the explosion of the storage tank.The reason can be traced back to the failure to inspect the storage tank regularly or the failure to use explosion-proof equipment.Electrical spark and valve or flange damage are the key hidden dangers of oil storage tank explosion,and the accident hidden danger is related to the chain of "valve or flange damage →abnormal oil gusher → leakage exceeding limit → fire source(electrical spark)→ explosion".
hazardous chemical explosionBayesian network(BN)hidden danger of accidenttriangular fuzzy numberposterior probability
万方数据
维普
