首页|风险动物园(Ⅶ):灰犀牛风险分类体系、演化机制与管控策略

风险动物园(Ⅶ):灰犀牛风险分类体系、演化机制与管控策略

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作为风险管理领域的新兴概念和隐喻理论的重要组成部分,风险动物园中灰犀牛的本质属性和风险特征被广泛研究和应用.为防范化解新时代的风险挑战,加强灰犀牛相关研究的系统梳理和内涵挖掘,通过融合现有理论模型和借鉴风险分类方法,开展灰犀牛风险的类型体系构建、演化机制探析与管控策略研究.结果表明:灰犀牛风险作为客观环境因素和主观认知影响交互作用下的产物,按照特征维、认知维和状态维以及时间视角、空间视角和主体视角,把灰犀牛风险划分为隐藏灰犀牛、静止灰犀牛和冲撞灰犀牛;根据风险感知、风险距离和风险框架影响因素的作用机制,评估每类灰犀牛风险的发展态势;进而构建复杂系统内"累积—波动—突变"的演化框架,提出风险管控策略,提高认知能力察觉不易感知的隐藏灰犀牛;强化创新思维化解常态共存的静止灰犀牛;打造敏捷模式应对突然爆发的冲撞灰犀牛.
Risk zoo(Ⅶ):risk classification system,evolution mechanism,and management strategies of grey rhino
The properties and risk characteristics of grey rhinos have been deeply investigated and used,which are new emerging concepts and metaphor theories in risk management areas.To prevent and mitigate risks and challenges nowadays,it is urgent to systematically investigate the grey rhino-related contexts.The risk classification system,evolutionary mechanism,and management strategies of grey rhinos were explored by integrating existing theoretical models and risk classification approaches.The results indicated that the grey rhino risk was attributed to objective environmental factors and subjective cognitive factors.Moreover,the grey rhino risk can be divided into hidden,stationary,and collisional gray rhinos based on properties,cognitive,state,time,spatial,and subject perspectives.The risk development trend of each grey rhino species was evaluated based on the mechanism of risk perception,risk distance,and risk framework influence factors.Furthermore,an evolutionary framework of"accumulation-fluctuation-mutation"within a complicated system was proposed to develop risk management strategies and improve cognitive abilities by identifying hidden gray rhinoceroses that were not easily perceived.The innovative idea is strengthened to resolve static grey rhinos of normalized coexistence,and agile mode is created to deal with sudden bursts of collision gray rhinos.

grey rhino riskclassification systemevolution mechanismrisk managementmanagement strategies

佟瑞鹏、王乾、张晓磊、赵晶荣

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中国矿业大学(北京)应急管理与安全工程学院,北京 100083

灰犀牛风险 分类体系 演化机制 风险管控 管控策略

国家自然科学基金资助北京市自然科学基金资助

520743028212015

2024

中国安全科学学报
中国职业安全健康协会

中国安全科学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.548
ISSN:1003-3033
年,卷(期):2024.34(8)