社会技术系统视角下城市地铁内涝事故致因定量分析

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中文摘要：为有效防控城市地铁内涝事故风险,提出一种将事故地图(AcciMap)模型、模糊层次分析法(FAHP)以及三角模糊决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)-解释结构模型(ISM)方法融合的事故致因系统评价模型,定量挖掘城市地铁内涝事故致因及其耦合作用关系.通过AcciMap模型从系统层面遴选事故致因;用FAHP综合专家意见,确定专家权重;利用DEMATEL方法计算事故致因重要程度,采用ISM方法揭示因素间的相互关系,构造多级阶梯有向图.并以郑州地铁的内涝事故为例,验证提出的方法.结果表明:管理部门对特大灾害认识防范不足、监督部门监察职责履行不认真、运营部门应对处置不力是事故发生的核心致因要素,应予以重点关注,防止该社会技术系统失效.

外文标题：Quantitative analysis of accident causes of urban subway waterlogging from perspective of complex socio-technical systems

外文摘要：To effectively prevent and control the risk of subway waterlogging accidents,a quantitative analysis method integrating the AcciMap model,FAHP,and triangular fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM method was proposed to investigate the causes of urban subway waterlogging accidents and their coupling associations.Accident causation factors were selected from the system level through AcciMap model.FAHP was used to integrate expert opinions and determine expert weights.The DEMATEL method was used to calculate the importance of accident causes,ISM method was used to reveal the relationship between factors,and a multi-level ladder stepwise graph was constructed.The model was validated by waterlogging accidents on the Zhengzhou subway.The results showed that the core contributing factors leading to the incident were inadequate awareness and prevention measures of major disasters by the management department,the lack of diligence in supervision and inspection duties by regulatory authorities,and ineffective response and handling by operational departments.These factors can be paid special attention to prevent system failures.

外文关键词：

complex socio-technical systemsurban subway waterlogging accidentsaccident causesquantitative analysisdecision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)interpretative structural modeling(ISM)

作者：

邢金朵、杨威、张军

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作者单位：

北京建筑大学机电与车辆工程学院,北京 100044

北京印刷学院机电工程学院,北京 102699

关键词：

社会技术系统城市地铁内涝事故事故致因定量分析决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL) 解释结构模型(ISM)

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.11.2065