Objective To explore the ideal predictors of tubal pregnancy rupture by analyzing ROC curves of the indexes and critical values of β-HCG.Methods A total of 517 cases of tubal pregnancy patients were included,comprising 103 cases of tubal rupture and 414 cases of tubal non-rupture.Ten factors that may affect tubal rupture were screened.Single-factor and multiple-factor Logistic regression analyses were employed to assess the diagnostic power of each factor using receiver operating characteristic curves(ROC).The predictive critical value of serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin(β-HCG)was analyzed.Results Univariate analysis identified five variables with statistical significance,which were subsequently used as independent variables,with tubal pregnancy rupture as the dependent variable.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed four independent risk factors:menopausal time,maximum mass diameter,pregnancy site and serum β-HCG level.Analysis of the subject performance characteristic curve indicated that pregnancy site and serum β-HCG level both had an AUC(Area Under the Curve)＞0.7,indicating high diagnostic efficacy.The AUC value of the four indexes combined to determine the risk of tubal rupture was 0.861,with the predictive critical value for β-HCG set at 3 756.50 IU/L.Conclusion It is suggested combining the use of menopausal time,maximum mass diameter,pregnancy site and serum β-HCG level as a risk factor for predicting tubal pregnancy rupture.
Tubal pregnancyRupturedPredictMulti-factor analysisCritical value
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